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#1 05-06-2015 11:07:17

Admin & Trader
From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
Posts: 2593

EUR/USD: BNP gives 5 reasons why it expects parity

EUR/USD: BNP gives 5 reasons why it reaffirms its expectation for parity

In an analysis published today, BNP Paribas lists 5 reasons to use the recent rise of the euro as a sales opportunity:

1 / The message of the ECB remains dovish

"The message of the ECB was broadly dovish during Wednesday's meeting, President Mario Draghi reiterated that the bank intends to fully implement its QE program despite the recent improvement in inflation."

2 / The fall of the bond market is expected to reverse

"The increase of the EUR/USD this week was observed simultaneously with the sale of European gold bonds, our rate analyst team highlights the fact that the summer months should allow the performance to improve. "

3 / The positioning on the euro is very close to neutral levels

"The squeeze on short EUR positions seems to be at the end of the race in terms of a positioning"

4 / Solid US data should support the dollar

"We believe that a strong NFP report (our analysts anticipate more than 240k new jobs) could help boost US rates and strengthen the rising rate expectations for the month of September."

5 / A positive outcome of the Greek crisis is unlikely to prevent the euro from going down

"In terms of the situation in Greece, we believe that an agreement by the end of June does not warrant a reversal of market expectations for a rise of the euro"

BNP Paribas forecast

For the record, BNP Paribas sees the EUR/USD at 1.04 at the end of T2, 1.02 at end of T3 and 1.0000 (parity) at the end of 2015.

"Anything worth having is worth going for - all the way." - J.R. Ewing



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