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#1 07-08-2017 11:31:22

johnedward
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From: Paris - France
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USD/JPY: Nomura explains why pair could drop to 100 as early as...

USD/JPY: Nomura explains why pair could drop to 100 (a 1000-pip drop!) as early as next month


http://www.forex-central.net/forum/userimages/logo-Nomura.png


According to the Nomura bank, the USD/JPY could fall to 100.00 next month (although its overall forecast is for a decline to 100 by the end of 2017), in light of positioning factors, and with respect to US policy.

The bank notes that short positions on the Yen are close to their highest level since January 2014. "The speculative selling positions on the Yen are extremely high and the Yen could undergo strong upward pressure if these positions are reduced" explains the bank.

Beyond this positioning factor, Nomura notes that talks on the US debt ceiling, or a Fed that is more cautious about rising Fed Fund rates could be powerful downside factors for the USD/JPY.

In this context, the bank advises traders to closely monitor the next Fed meeting on 19 and 20 September, as well as discussions on the US debt ceiling, which must be raised before 29 September to avoid default.


"Anything worth having is worth going for - all the way." - J.R. Ewing

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