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#1 27-12-2018 09:22:41

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EUR/USD: US and eurozone growth could slow down in 2019 (Natixis)

EUR/USD: growth in the US and eurozone could slow down in 2019 (Natixis)

Natixis suggests that US growth should slow down in 2019 due to a return of full employment and the decline in housing investment and purchases of durable goods and cars. The bank adds that the slowdown in growth in the euro area is now clearly underway and this time it is not because of finance.

"When we look at interest rate expectations, share prices and earnings, credit spreads and US exchange rates, we find that the slowdown in growth is probably already quite significant and that it is already largely taken into account by the market.

While financial markets are already forecasting weaker growth in the US, this weakening should not lead to further deterioration of the stock markets.

"We want to stress that the slowdown in growth in the eurozone is not the result of an imbalance caused by finance:
     There is no price bubble affecting financial or real estate assets in the euro area;
     There is no over-indebtedness of households or companies which aggravates the defaults of payment;
     There is no banking crisis leading to a decline in credit;
     There is no fiscal solvency crisis in the euro area countries.
The slowdown in growth in the euro area is therefore a purely economic phenomenon (it is an old-fashioned cycle): difficulties in hiring experienced by companies companies, the saturation of housing needs, capital goods and durable goods and a slowdown in world trade.

"Anything worth having is worth going for - all the way." - J.R. Ewing



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