EUR/USD: the euro may prolong its consolidation phase (UOB)

UOB Analysis of the EUR/USD pair:

Intraday analysis

The EUR/USD traded between 1.1282 and 1.1332 on Monday, a narrower range than the 1.1260/1.1330 consolidation range. The current price evolution is still considered as an ongoing consolidation phase. In other words, we continue to expect the euro to trade sideways for the time being, but probably in a slightly higher range between 1.1290 and 1.1350.

Short-term analysis

After last Friday's sharp drop (22 March), the EUR/USD traded relatively quietly on Monday and recorded an "internal" day. As pointed out on Monday (25 March at 1.1295), the recent price action, in which the euro didn't prolong its decline after falling sharply below 1.1200 earlier this month (low at 1.1774 on 7 March) and the rapid and sharp decline last Friday (after a sharp rise to 1.1448) has resulted in unclear prospects. The indicators are broadly "flat", suggesting that the EUR could be "stuck" between 1.1744 and 1.1448 for several weeks. From a 1 to 3-week perspective, a range of 1.1220/1.1400 is probably sufficient to contain the expected lateral transactions of the euro.