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#1 09-09-2019 09:15:38

Admin & Trader
From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
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EUR/USD: what stats and technical factors need to be considered?

EUR/USD: what stats and technical factors need to be taken into account to trade the pair this week?

This week could be decisive for the pair, particularly due to the economic calendar, especially with Thursday's highly anticipated ECB meeting.

However, although much of the market's attention will be focused on Draghi and the ECB, several other key stats could also influence the pair this week.

In this weekly analysis of the EUR/USD, we will therefore take stock of all the stats likely to influence trade this week, as well as the main technical factors to be taken into account.

What stats are likely to influence the pair this week?

Today, the only important statistics in the economic calendar will be Germany's trade balance for the month of July. The consensus of economists anticipates a lower trade surplus of $17.5 billion compared to $18.1 billion in June.

On Tuesday, the JOLTS report on US job offers in August will be closely monitored.

On Wednesday, the US Producer Price Index will be the most important macroeconomic event. The consensus forecasts a PPI of 0.1% for last month, after 0.2% in July.

Thursday will focus on the ECB meeting, but other events will also complement this particularly busy day.

In the US, a new CPI estimate for August will also be on the agenda that day, and is expected to reach 0.1% (previously 0.3%) on a monthly basis (and 2.3% versus 2.2% on an annual basis).

Weekly jobless claims will also be expected at the same time, and should also match the previous month's figure at 217k.

Lastly, and regarding the ECB meeting, the decision on rates will be expected at 13:45, with Mr. Draghi's press conference at 14:30. The market widely expects the ECB's deposit rate to fall, but several details could also have a significant impact on trading, such as indications of possible new EQ or further rate cuts.

Friday will also be a key day for the eurodollar pair, with several major events. The most important stat of the day, and probably also the most important US statistic of the week, will be last month's retail sales.

The consensus forecasts an increase of only +0.1%, after +1% in July.

In addition, the last important statistic of the week will be the American consumer confidence index calculated by the University of Michigan. The consensus is for a recovery to 90.7 points, after 89.8 points in the previous month.

EUR/USD chart analysis

From a graphical point of view, it should be noted that although the euro gained ground last week, the underlying trend remains generally to the downside.

Indeed, since 13 August, we can observe a downward trend line that blocked the rise of the euro last week and sent the pair back down, with the help of an NFP report that was judged less harshly than at first glance, and a less dovish speech by Powell than had been expected.

For the pair to show a more bullish profile, we would need to see a clear break above the psychological threshold of 1.11, which would confirm that the downward trend line mentioned above is indeed crossed.

Beyond that, the psychological threshold of 1.12 will be the first obstacle to be taken into account.

In terms of a downward trend, the key psychological threshold of 1.10 remains the first important support to be taken into account, ahead of 1.10950, and then the annual low of 1.0925.

In the end, it is therefore better to stay away from the eurodollar pair as long as it doesn't rise above 1.11 or below 1.10.

Hourly EUR/USD chart

"Anything worth having is worth going for - all the way." - J.R. Ewing



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