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#1 30-09-2019 10:35:10

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EUR/USD: this week's forcasts and targets (Commerzbank and UOB)

EUR/USD: this week's forcasts and targets (Commerzbank and UOB)

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply last week, and remains in a bearish bias today, between support in the 1.0900 range and resistance at 1.0950.

In order to start this new week on a good footing, we propose to take stock of the forecasts of some banks regarding the EUR/USD.

1.0870 is the short-term target (UOB)

According to UOB analysts, the pair may now attempt a move to 1.0870 in the coming days:

"The expectation of a breach below the major 1.0900 level didn't materialise as the euro rebounded after reaching 1.0903. Downward momentum has slowed and the euro has probably entered a consolidation phase and is likely to trade laterally or slightly higher, with a range of 1.0920/1.0970 for today.

In the longer term, the euro reached a new low of 1.0907 on Friday before recovering to close the day up +0.16% (1.0938). There is no change in our view from Friday (27 September at 1.0920) which specifies that the EUR is "ready to approach the next support level at 1.0870". That being said, excessive over-selling of short-term conditions could initially lead to a consolidation of 1 to 2 days, but only a move above 1.0990 could indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.

A return of the pair above 1.1058 is necessary to weaken the short bias (Commerzbank)

Commerzbank analysts believe that the pair's short bias should persist below 1.1058.

"The EUR/USD has dropped to the base of the weekly channel at 1.0899 currently. The new low of 1.0904 has not been confirmed by the daily RSI. Extreme caution must be exercised, though, which would help us contain downside risks and trigger a recovery. Failure at the base of the one-year downward channel at 1.0899 would place the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and Fibonacci's retracement at 78.6% of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814. Also, the topside remains capped by the three-month resistance line at 1.1058".

EUR/USD hourly chart

"Anything worth having is worth going for - all the way." - J.R. Ewing



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