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#1 22-10-2019 11:41:27

Admin & Trader
From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
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EUR/USD: the euro is straying from recent peaks due to trader prudence

EUR/USD: the euro is straying from recent peaks due to trader prudence, but the trend remains positive (Commerzbank)

Driven by Brexit expectations, the EUR/USD pair managed to peak at 1.1180 on Monday, but traders' optimism is not enough to push the pair to a psychological threshold test of 1.12, and in this context, the pair is back under the support level of 1.1150 this morning.

Investors are expecting another vote tonight on Boris Johnson's Brexit agreement. If the vote is positive, it is expected that the GBP/USD will rise sharply, and to a lesser extent the EUR/USD, which could exceed 1.12.

In the meantime, caution will remain necessary, monitoring resistances at 1.1150 and 1.1180, and supports at 1.1135, 1.1118 (100-hour moving average) and 1.11 initially.

It should also be noted that an ECB meeting is also expected in 2 days, which should also encourage traders to demonstrate restraint on the euro.

EUR/USD hourly chart

Let us now look at a major bank's forecast for the EUR/USD:

Commerzbank expects a test of 1.12, and a test of 1.15 in the longer term.

Karen Jones, a Commerzbank analyst, notes that the EUR/USD remained stable on Monday and continues to aim for the 200-day moving average at 1.1207 and then for the peak of the channel at 1.1290.

"The 55-week MA is 1.1258. Intraday declines are likely to be limited in the 1.1120/1.1085 range. As long as 1.1047 is maintained, the short-term upward trend will continue. In the longer term, the critical resistance to overcome is the 200-week MA at 1.1355 and although we expect this resistance zone to hold the initial test, in the longer term, we are aiming for 1.1520/70, the 2019 high."

"Below 1.0879, we have the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 rally at 1.0814."

"Anything worth having is worth going for - all the way." - J.R. Ewing



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