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#1 23-01-2020 20:33:34

johnedward
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From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
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EUR/USD: the pair declines after ECB meeting - next selling targets

EUR/USD: the pair declines after ECB meeting - review of next selling targets


The euro-dollar pair fell following the ECB meeting, but the central bank doesn't seem to have been especially behind the move, as the ECB didn't change its monetary policy, nor did Mrs. C. Lagarde offer any surprises at the press conference.

It should be noted that Lagarde did say, among other things, that :

"The manufacturing industry remains a brake.
Employment growth continues to support the economy.
There are signs that inflation is rising in line with expectations".
Given the still subdued inflation outlook, monetary policy needs to remain stimulative for an extended period of time.
We will closely monitor the evolution of inflation.
The ECB stands ready to adjust all instruments as required.
The ECB commits to inflation symmetry.
Europe's inflation is up by +0.3% compared to the previous quarter, after +0.2% in the second quarter.
Weak growth reflects the weakness in world trade.
Surveys and data points show some stabilisation.
Growth in the short-term is expected to be similar to that of previous quarters.
Risks are tilted downwards and are less pronounced.
Slower growth delays the rise in inflation.
Cross-checking the data confirms that much remains to be done in terms of monetary adjustment.


After Christine Lagarde's press conference, the pair initially rose to a high of 1.1109, before falling back to a low of 1.1060. The pair has been on a downward trend ever since then.

The peak tested the 100-hour moving average, while the subsequent fall in the pair touched the 100-day moving average. These thresholds will therefore continue to be monitored, at 1.1089 and 1.1064 respectively, as the current milestones in the euro's evolution.

However, it should be noted that there are more obstacles to a rise than to a fall, with the 100-hour moving average at 1.1089 in addition to the 100-hour moving average:

-The psychological threshold of 1.11
-The 200-hour moving average at 1.1116
-This week's high at 1.1116.
-The 200-day moving average at 1.1136

If the sellers do indeed win and the pair confirms a break below the 100-day moving average at 1.1064, the psychological threshold of 1.10 will be in sight.

Hourly EUR/USD chart

http://www.forex-central.net/forum/userimages/EURUSD-H1.png



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