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#1 25-06-2020 11:17:11

johnedward
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From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
Posts: 2831
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EUR/USD: several major US statistical reports coming out today

EUR/USD: several major US statistical reports coming out today


Nervousness with no very short-term tendency. The EUR/USD's oscillations remain highly dependent on the antagonistic forces that are driving the market at the moment, namely contradictory injunctions that are difficult to decipher between encouraging leading indicators on the one hand, and virus risks on the other.

On the statistical front, after better than expected PMIs on Tuesday, as a first estimate for June, traders took note of the IFO business climate index in Germany, at 86.3 this month, up sharply above expectations. Forex traders are still on guard, however, and are taking the risk of a second wave of the epidemic, which would inevitably result in the market being driven away from the riskier assets, a family of which the EUR is a prominent representative.

In fact, the IMF has harshly revised its previous forecasts made 2 months ago, now estimating that the contraction of world GDP should reach 5.0% (against 2.9% previously), while the contraction of French GDP is expected to reach -12.6% (against -6.9% in April), a figure deemed "very pessimistic" by the world's best forecaster, Chris Barraud, "given the most recent economic data". For the United States, the IMF is now expecting a contraction of 7.9%, compared to -6.0% 2 months ago.

On today's US statistical calendar, the priority is to follow a very dense programme: wholesalers' stocks, the trade balance, weekly unemployment benefit registrations, GDP and orders for durable goods at 14:30 (Paris time), as well as the results of the banks' stress tests at 22:30.

At midday on the forex, the pair was trading at $1.1221.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST

In view of the above, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the EUR/USD is positioned between support at $1.1109 and resistance at $1.1439.

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