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#1 29-06-2020 13:53:26

johnedward
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From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
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EUR/USD: how will the dire health situation in US affect the pair?

EUR/USD: how will the dire health situation in south of USA affect the pair?


The EUR/USD continued to form a vast nervous and volatile consolidation figure as fears on the health front deepen in the US.

On the only virus front, the latest figures impose measures on behalf of Americans. According to data from John Hopkins University, whose work is authoritative on the subject, nearly 2,549,500 cases of the virus have been identified in the US. The number of new daily cases, after marking a plateau at around 19,500, exploded, with a peak in particular last week.

More generally, the news related to the virus situation over the past 15 days gradually forced politicians to be more careful. These include the resurgence of new cases in Beijing, the decision to reconfigure more than 598,000 Germans, new measures to restrict the regrouping of people in Portugal, the risks with the arrival of the monsoon, and records of new daily cases in certain southern states of the USA (Nevada, Texas, California and Arizona).

In terms of end-of-week statistics, nothing consistent to get your teeth into the European side. As for the expenses and incomes of American households, they came out so-so this month with expenses (+7.9%) bursting out in "post-lockdown", but less than anticipated, but incomes which continued their contraction, but at a less alarming rate than anticipated ... Finally, the consumer confidence index (U-Mich) came out in revised data at 77.9, a little below expectations.

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.1283.

KEY GRAPHICS

After crossing the upper limit of a range, at the end of last month, on acceleration of volatility and consecutive upward extension, the pair released a significant purchasing energy potential, until almost returning to its high points of early March. Momentarily, a breathing phase, in the form of nerve consolidation, is highly possible. This broad consolidation finally defined its scope (1.1169/1.1439). It is in this working band that erratic oscillations are now considered.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST

In view of the above, our opinion remains neutral on the pair.

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the pair remains positioned between support at $1.1109 and the resistance at $1.1439.

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