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#1 13-10-2020 09:18:28

Admin & Trader
From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
Posts: 2910

EUR/USD: 1.1800 is hard to reconquer

EUR/USD: 1.1800 is hard to reconquer

The only reason for the EUR/USD to continue its ascent is the weakness of the dollar. The latter is seen as a short-term refuge when peaks in volatility occur on risky assets. And the steady rise in the indices does not encourage traders to return to buying the greenback.

Continued negotiations on a fiscal stimulus package in the United States make investors optimistic for the future. Some measures have already been announced. Help for airlines, SMEs in difficulty and $1,200 checks sent to Americans... these were the measures announced by Trump.

The decline of the dollar has thus led to the temporary rise of the pair above 1.1800, while the single currency does not seem to have sufficient arguments to justify a rise beyond its recent highs. The partial and progressive containment measures in European countries do not encourage optimism about the economic recovery in this geographical area.

Moreover, the rise of the euro had not worried Mrs. Lagarde, president of the ECB, during her last speeches. And yet, it weighs on the countries of the south in terms of price competitiveness in a context of uncertain economic recovery.

After having been in line throughout August between 1.1750 and 1.1950, the end of September was under the sign of a legitimate decline for the pair, in the image of a peak of stress on the international indices. Ever since the 1.1600 zone, the pair has been slowly recovering around 1.1800 but without any real conviction. The daily bullish candlesticks are almost systematically retraced the next day, which leads us to be cautious about bullish (and even bearish) technical indications. Admittedly, the rise continues gradually, but beware of the current timing of intervention. The current context is not conducive to taking the initiative and calls for a certain caution before obtaining further technical or fundamental information.

In view of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair's rate.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the pair is positioned between support at $1.1755 and resistance at $1.1873.

"Anything worth having is worth going for - all the way." - J.R. Ewing



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