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#1 26-10-2020 08:02:53

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 26 - 30, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR / USD. 40% of analysts predicted the growth of this pair to the 1.1900 zone and were right: the local weekly high was recorded at 1.1880, and the five-day period ended at 1.1860.
Strong macro statistics from the United States, as well as a record increase in the number of COVID-19 infected in the Old World, seemed to reverse the pair's trend south on October 21. But then Europe, together with Germany, showed an increase in business activity. This reduced the chances of a build-up of the European quantitative easing (QE) program and further growth in bond prices, which allowed the pair to return to its weekly highs;

- GBP/USD. The hope of a third of analysts that the uptrend was over and the pair shifted to a sideways movement did not come true: it moved north again, turning the upper border of the sideways channel 1.2845-1.3035 from resistance to support.
The UK and the EU continued negotiations, breaking the deadlock in which they stood since the end of last week. But then... they hit it again. As a result, the pair rushed upwards, but having reached a height of 1.3175, it turned in the opposite direction. Contributing to the decline was the Markit PMI in the UK services sector, which fell from 56.1 to 52.3.
The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3045. This means that the pound still gained 130 points in 5 days, and investors still hope that the UK and the EU can come to an agreement on Brexit. Although the main reason, of course, is not the strengthening of the pound, but the weakening of the dollar; 

- USD/JPY. Recall that 30% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, expected the pair to rebound from the horizon at 105.00 and rise to the resistance of 106.00. And they turned out to be right: the pair reached a height of 105.75 by Tuesday October 20.
The remaining 70% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1, claimed that the USD/JPY pair will be able to approach the September 21 low of 104.00 at least for a while. And they were not mistaken either: - on Wednesday, October 21, the pair recorded a local low at 104.33, followed by a rebound and a finish at 104.70.
According to experts, such a sharp reversal and a fall from a height of 105.75 to 104.33 were a reaction to the general weakening of the dollar and, first of all, its depreciation against the Chinese yuan. The massive triggering of Stop-Loss orders when the support broke out in the 105.00 zone added fuel to the fire;

- cryptocurrencies. Finally! Bitcoin broke the $12,000 level and even hit the $13,200 high. And, as the CEO of analyst firm CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, predicted, this growth has not led to a massive sell-off of the coin. This gives reason to hope that the main cryptocurrency will be able to gain a foothold in this zone.
Bitcoin has grown by almost 80% since the beginning of 2020. According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of addresses that store more than 100 BTC has grown to 16,159, reaching the maximum value in six months. The total number of addresses with a non-zero balance is approaching 32 million.
According to another analytical agency, The Block, in addition to the growth in the number of wallets, the number of transactions and the volume of commissions in the BTC blockchain are also growing. Over the past quarter, transactions worth $225 billion were made on this network. That is, on average, users were conducting transactions for $2.4 billion per day. Four months ago, the average transaction was about $25,000, but it jumped 6 times by October 20, reaching $150,000.
Over the past week, bitcoin's gains have been driven by a very positive news background. Large institutional investors such as Square, MicroStrategy, Stoneridge and Mode Global Holdings have turned to Bitcoin. And the news that the payment giant PayPal is adding to its line of services the ability to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, came as a "cherry on the cake".
As a result, the benchmark coin rose 13.5% in seven days, pulling the entire crypto market with it, the total capitalization of which increased from $357 to $390 billion.The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from the neutral yellow zone to the border of the last quarter of the scale reaching the value of 74. Recall that the range from 75 to 100 is designated by the developers of the index as “Extreme Greed”, which corresponds to the pair BTC/USD being strongly overbought and foreshadows its correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If you follow the textbooks on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic statistics is of basic, fundamental importance. However, there was no coronavirus pandemic when these books were written. And now it's here. And it is capable of destroying any predictions.
On the one hand, the incidence schedule in Europe is bursting upward, Germany and France set a new "anti-record" for the number of infected people on Thursday, October 22. Spain has become the first European country to see the number of people falling ill above 1m, putting pressure on the euro. But COVID-19 has hit supply as well as demand. 
The situation is similar in the US. The number of coronavirus patients is approaching record levels. But at the same time, the country's authorities do not want to introduce new quarantine restrictions in order to support economic activity. Much, including the mood of the markets, depends on the outcome of the US presidential election on November 3.   
According to Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, Democrat Joe Biden's victory will reduce the likelihood of a new wave of protectionist US policies and allow the pair to reach the 1.2000 mark. If Donald Trump wins again, the dollar, in anticipation of a new round of trade war, is likely to go into growth, and the EUR/USD pair will fall to the lows of September in the 1.1600 zone.
In the meantime, despite the fact that Biden's ratings are higher, investors are in no hurry to get rid of the dollar, because they remember how, unexpectedly for many, Donald Trump became the resident of the White House in 2016. And this can happen again.
The intrigue with the election results will continue after November 3, because they may be challenged, especially those of voting by mail, and the electoral college will meet only on December 14.
Now about the forecast for the coming week. The listed uncertainties prevent analysts from unambiguously pointing in one direction or another. However, 75% of them do not exclude a slight rise in the EUR/USD pair at least to the level of 1.1900. Also, 100% of indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green.
The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Its fall is also supported by 25% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.1800, 1.1760 and 1.1700. The ultimate goal, as already stated, is 1.1600.
As for the events of the coming week, special attention should be paid to the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, October 29, and especially to the final press conference of its lmanagement, which will be held in the afternoon of the same day. The data on US GDP, which will be released on October 29, and the Eurozone GDP, which will be released a day later, on Friday, October 30, can also influence the formation of local trends;

- GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority (90%) of experts, supported by graphical analysis and trend indicators on D1, believe that the pair changed the echelon 1.2845-1.3035 to a higher one - 1.3000-1.3175. However, this forecast is very short-term, and its further behavior will be determined by the result of the presidential election in the United States, the epidemiological situation on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and the course of negotiations between the EU and the UK on the terms of Brexit. If the parties show that there will be no withdrawal from the Agreement, this will have a beneficial effect on the pound rate. The situation on this issue should be clarified by mid-November. In the meantime, COVID-19 will continue to play the main role, having the most serious impact on the British economy and especially on finances.
It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the picture changes radically, and here already the majority of experts (60%) and  graphical analysis on D1 expect the pair to fall rather than rise: first to the level of 1.2860, and then by another 100 points below;

https://i.imgur.com/zS7KN5X.jpg



- USD/JPY. We are waiting for the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and its management's comment on monetary policy next week, on October 29. But, as usual, we do not expect any surprises from them, and the rate is highly likely to remain at the same negative level, minus 0.1%.
More interesting is the tug of war between the dollar and the yen as safe haven currencies. And here, given the pre-election and pandemic chaos in the US, 75% of experts prefer the Japanese currency as more stable. This scenario is supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1.
Note that, starting in 2016, the USD/JPY pair has fallen below 105.00 for the seventh time. However, it usually lingers there only for a very short time, after which it returns above this mark. The question is still open as to what will happen this time. However, in the medium term, 60% of experts do not exclude that the pair may break through the support of 104.00 and even go down to the zone 102.00-103.00.
As for the graphical analysis, on D1 it draws a sideways movement in the 104.00-105.55 channel within the next three weeks;

- cryptocurrencies. On Friday evening, October 23, the BTC/USD pair is in the $12.860 zone - a new local support/resistance level. If bitcoin holds above $12,800, it promises to be the highest weekly rise in 2.5 years and offers hope for growth to historic highs around $20,000. The immediate challenge is testing the July 2019 high of $13,760.
Bitcoin's rise right now is driven by the pandemic, the monetary printing press that trillions of fiats are coming out of, and the growing popularity of cryptocurrency with large institutional investors. Thus, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital investment firm Anthony Pompliano increased accumulations in the main cryptocurrency from 50% to 80%.
The number of contracts to buy BTC accumulated in the hands of institutional investors has reached an all-time high, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). However, according to the Commitment of traders (COT) reports, hedge funds hold no fewer contracts to sell bitcoin. A number of experts believe that hedge funds do this in order to provide sufficient liquidity for institutional investors.
Popular TV host and long-time bitcoin supporter Max Kaiser agrees with this version. He believes that at current levels, bitcoin futures traders are slowing the price of BTC to give institutional players a chance to "load the boat." However, once the asset reaches the $28,000 mark (the intermediate benchmark set by Kaiser), the number of coins for sale will go zero, and thanks to the deficit, their price will burst up to the cosmic heights.
“For the poor of this world, the current price and availability of BTC,” says Kaiser, “is the only opportunity in life to purchase non-forfeitable hard money before the price of it rises to 40-80 times, and prices will soar to the level of golden parity by around $400,000.”
Turning to the forecast for the coming months, we will cite the opinion of Anton Kravchenko, CEO of the investment company Xena Financial Systems, according to which the rate of the BTC/USD pair may reach $14,000 by the end of the year. 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The fact that the pair could fall to $9,000 was mentioned by 25% of analysts a week ago, now their number has fallen to 15%. The remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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#2 28-10-2020 15:47:40

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

CryptoNews

https://i.imgur.com/bCXNCSz.jpg



- The number of cryptocurrency whales has started to increase amid the recent rally in bitcoin. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. According to the company's specialists, the number of wallets containing more than 1000 coins reached 2.2 thousand on October 25. There were less than 2 thousand of them at the beginning of the year, and their number began to decline at a rapid pace before the May halving.
Based on the current rate, each of the cryptocurrency “whales” is the owner of a fortune of at least 13 million dollars. It is noteworthy that many of them invested in bitcoin during periods when it was very cheap, which speaks of the record profitability of the main coin for its "early" owners.

- One of the leading bitcoin ATM operators LibertyX has added the option to sell bitcoin for cash to 5000 devices located in the United States. This function avoids delays associated with bank transfers. Anyone who wants to sell bitcoins just needs to use an application or a website to enter the number of coins they want to sell and choose a convenient ATM that will give them cash in dollars after specifying the order number. The commission for such an operation is quite large: 8%.

- Bitcoin outperforms gold as an alternative currency and has a significantly better chance of continued growth, according to a new report by the US investment bank JPMorgan. At the same time, the bank's analysts draw attention to the low capitalization of bitcoin, which, in their opinion, is explained by the fact that mainly millennials choose the cryptocurrency. The older generation prefers to keep assets in tangible form, in particular, in gold. Despite this, however, bitcoin has significant potential for long-term growth as millennials will become "an increasingly important component of the investment space" over time.
JPMorgan estimates that the physical gold market, including ETF backed by it, is $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin needs to raise its current value of around $13,000 10 times to equal the precious metal in this respect.

- Hackers broke into the database of the Vastaamo Psychotherapy Centre in Finland. After gaining access to information on thousands of patients at the centre, they demanded a ransom in the amount of 450 thousand euros in bitcoins. The cybercriminals threatened to publish the stolen data and have already begun to implement the threat by uploading the personal data of at least 300 people to the web. The information included the patient's name, telephone number, email address, residential address, diagnosis, and the content of the therapy sessions.
The hackers also offered individual patients to delete their data for a ransom of up to 540 euros in bitcoins.

- After the payment giant PayPal announced the start of support for bitcoin and a number of other cryptocurrencies, Visa, Mastercard and American Express will follow its example. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Bloomberg by the CEO of the Galaxy Investment cryptocurrency fund Mike Novogratz.
However, speaking of bitcoin, Novogratz sees in it only a way to preserve capital and doubts that the first cryptocurrency will become widespread as a means of payment. “I don't think this will happen within the next five years. Bitcoin is used as a means of accumulation. Therefore, as digital gold, it will simply continue to rise in value, and more and more people will include it in their portfolios,” explained Novogratz.
As a reminder, PayPal announced the launch of the function of buying, selling and storing bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin on Wednesday, October 21. The company expects that the new feature will stimulate the global use of cryptocurrencies and prepare the web for digital currencies of central banks.

- According to analysts at Glassnode, the rate of bitcoin has not increased much so far. They conclude from this that the asset will have every chance to take on new barriers in the future. Investors are still only trying to figure out the new policy of bitcoin, since it is more focused on the internal environment now. Stock markets and other external factors have practically ceased to influence it.

- American programmer, US presidential candidate, "crypto baron" John McAfee, arrested in Spain at the request of the US and accused of tax evasion, gave an interview to Cointelegraph right from his prison cell.
The eccentric millionaire shared his thoughts on the latest developments in the cryptocurrency industry, praised the news of the addition of cryptocurrencies to PayPal's arsenal, and could not resist advertising his own cryptocurrency. “Very soon, we will be faced with a new direction in using cryptocurrencies to execute transactions, rather than as a quick get-rich scheme. That's why I developed the privacy-focused stablecoin Ghost,” McAfee said.

- The founders of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, the Winklevoss brothers, confirmed their previous prediction, saying that bitcoin will be worth $500,000 sooner or later.
'The question isn't whether bitcoin will cost $500,000 or not, the question is how quickly it will happen. In fact, even this assessment seems to me very conservative - the game has not really even started, "- said Cameron Winklevoss.
Tyler Winklevoss added that he and his brother started buying cryptocurrency back in 2012 and expressed confidence that bitcoin outperforms gold, oil and the US dollar as a store of value and is the only long-term inflation hedge.

- The CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, who was prophesying the imminent decline of cryptocurrency in the past, claims that he is ready to hold bitcoin for 100 years and does not plan to sell it. Led by Saylor, the company has invested $425 million in bitcoin over the past months. “And this is not speculation or hedge. This is a targeted corporate strategy for the adoption of the bitcoin standard,” Saylor explained. According to him, having considered the available options for preserving capital amid the economic uncertainty in the world, MicroStrategy has come to the conclusion that bitcoin is the best long-term store of value. Taxes and commissions make investments in other assets meaningless, and if not, then they are flawed, because they are controlled by a company management or the state. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is evolving and only gets harder and stronger over time.
Sailor believes that gold cannot be compared to bitcoin. In his opinion, people who hold $100 million in fiat will lose 99% of the value of their assets in 100 years, and investments in gold will, at best, bring 85% of the loss.

- On Wednesday October 28, Donald Trump's campaign website was hacked. As a result, the content of the "About Us" page was changed to accommodate the addresses of the Monero cryptocurrency and the accompanying text. Cybercriminals claim in it to have hacked many devices and gained full access to information about Trump and his relatives. They also claim that they had information at their disposal, allegedly indicating the involvement of the Trump administration in the emergence of the coronavirus, as well as his personal involvement in criminal activity and cooperation with foreigners to manipulate the upcoming election.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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#3 31-10-2020 12:48:21

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

[SIZE="5"]Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 02 - 06, 2020[/SIZE]




First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. It seems that the market has decided not to pay much attention to the US presidential election. Investors are much more concerned about what is happening with the second wave of the pandemic COVID-19 in the Old and New Worlds, and what steps will be taken by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
In the United States - a record increase in the number of infected, which could lead to a collapse of stock markets, akin to March. However, in an effort to support the economy, the current White House administration is not yet going to introduce a lockdown, hoping for an early vaccination of the population. This decision was also influenced by the strong statistics of US GDP growth in the III quarter: plus 33.1% instead of minus 31.4% three months earlier.
As for Europe, many countries, including Germany and France, have already begun to implement stricter quarantine measures. Moreover, although at the last meeting on Thursday, October 29, the ECB did not lower the already low interest rate, the head of the bank, Christine Lagarde, made it very clear that very serious steps could be expected from the regulator in a month and a half, aimed at easing the monetary politics and stimulating the economy of the Old World.
Apparently, the European regulator decided to spend this time to determine the necessary amount of support for the economy, see how the situation with the coronavirus will develop and analyze the results of the US presidential election.
The data released on Friday, October 30, showed the growth of GDP in the Eurozone in the III quarter from minus 11.8% to plus 12.7%. But this, firstly, is significantly lower than in the United States, and secondly, according to Lagarde, the prospects with the onset of COVID-19 are so gloomy that the ECB does not rule out a recession in the Eurozone in the IV quarter. As a result, the ECB will have to expand its QE program by another €500 billion in December, and, and maybe lower the interest rate on the euro.
In general, the prospects for easing monetary policy in Europe seemed to investors much more real and large-scale than in the United States for now, which entailed a strengthening of the dollar by 220 points this week, a fall in EUR/USD to the level of 1.1640 and the pair's finish at 1.1645;

- GBP/USD. Most experts (60%), together with graphical analysis on D1, had expected the pair to fall to 1.2860 within two to three weeks. However, it happened much faster: it found a local bottom at 1.2880 as early as on Thursday, October 29. And the reason for the fall of the pound is not so much in the increased risks of a second wave of coronavirus in the UK, but in Brexit, which remains the main topic in this case. And the situation in this case is not in favour of the British currency.
Market hopes that the deal with Europe will be reached by the X hour in December this year are dimming like morning fog over London. And as former Bank of England governor Mark Carney used to say, a no-deal Brexit would come as a shock to the country's economy. And in anticipation of this shock, the pair set the last chord at 1.2950 after a week's hike to the south and a correction to the upper border of the descending channel;

- USD/JPY. As we expected, the meeting of the Bank of Japan on October 29 went without the slightest surprises. In a country whose currency is a safe haven and protection from financial storms, everything must remain calm and quiet.
More interesting is the tug of war between the dollar and the yen as safe haven currencies. And here, taking into account the pre-election and pandemic chaos in the US, 75% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1, preferred the Japanese currency as more stable. And they turned out to be right. As expected, having bounced off one significant level - 105.00, the pair made an attempt, the third one since July 31, to break through another significant level - support at 104.00. And again, it was unsuccessful. As a result, after the rebound, it returned to where it started from at the beginning of the five-day period, and completed the trading session at 104.65;

- cryptocurrencies. The market is filled with optimism after payment giant PayPal announced the launch of features to buy, sell and store Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin.  Visa, Mastercard and American Express should follow his example in the next few months, such opinion was expressed in an interview with Bloomberg by CEO of cryptocurrency fund Galaxy Investment Mike Novogratz.
Against the backdrop of the bitcoin rally in the second half of October, the number of cryptocurrency "whales" began to increase. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. According to experts, the number of wallets containing more than 1000 coins has reached 2.2 thousand. Based on the current rate, it turns out that each of their owners now has a fortune of at least 13 million dollars!
On this positive wave, the bulls tried to break to a height of $14,000 on Wednesday October 28, however they were stopped at $13,830. The next attempt followed on Thursday night, but was even less successful ¬: the maximum was fixed at $13,615. The bulls gave up after the third unsuccessful attempt, the BTC/USD pair rolled back down, and it is consolidating in the $13,300 zone by the evening of Friday October 30.
Following the growth of quotations on October 28, the total capitalization of the crypto market began to grow, rising from $390 billion to $410 billion. However, a rollback in the value of the main coin by the end of the week caused the closure of short-term positions and its sale, as a result of which the market returned to its starting point in the area of $388 billion.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also returned to its original position: to around 74, at the very border of the last quarter of the scale. Recall that level 74 corresponds to the average indicator of greed, when opening short positions is still dangerous. But the range from 75 to 100 is designated by the developers of the index as “Extreme Greed”, which corresponds to the pair BTC/USD being strongly overbought and foreshadows its correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde made it clear that her bank is ready to ease its monetary policy from next month. On the other hand, Donald Trump also speaks of possible support for the US economy. But the latter has elections on Tuesday, November 03, and all his rhetoric, as well as the rhetoric of his rival Joe Biden, can still be attributed to pre-election communications. it is hard to predict now what will happen in the US in reality, unlike in the Old World.
It is just as difficult to predict what will happen with the pandemic. It was said at the beginning of the review that the current White House administration is very much counting on vaccinations and a medical solution to the problem. However, the situation may deteriorate sharply until this happens and the stock indices will go down, as it happened last spring.
Then, against the backdrop of falling stock markets, the Fed began to flood the fire with cheap money, cut the interest rate, which led to the weakening of the American currency and the growth of the EUR/USD pair by more than 1300 points. Now, the EU is ahead of the United States in its measures of quantitative easing and the introduction of quarantine restrictions, which launched a sale in the euro last week and allowed the dollar to grow. However, it is clear that the weekly increase in USD by 220 points and the fall of 1300 points since March are two incomparable things.
The main US elections are scheduled for next week. And, in case of Joe Biden's victory, and thanks to rising stocks of American companies and encouraging vaults from the front of the fight against COVID-19, the euro can very quickly regain its lost ground. We should also pay attention to the meeting of the US Fed on Friday, November 06. And even not so much to its decision on the interest rate, which will hughly likely remain unchanged, as to the Fed's comment on monetary policy, which, it is possible, will already take into account the results of the presidential election.
Of course, as usual, data on the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) will be released on the first Friday of the month. But, against the background of the above-mentioned events, it is unlikely they will have any serious impact on quotes.
In the meantime, giving a forecast for the coming week, the majority of experts (65%) are looking south. The nearest support is the September 25 low 1.1610, the next target is zone 1.1500. This development is supported by graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1. But the remaining 25% of oscillators are already giving strong signals about the pair being oversold and the upcoming correction. The most likely rebound zone is 1.1600, the targets are 1.1700, 1.1750, 1.1830 and 1.1880;

- GBP/USD. A number of experts do not exclude that the Bank of England may announce the next measures aimed at supporting the country's economy at the nearest meeting on Thursday, November 05. The list of possible steps includes an increase in bond purchases to ?850 billion, and a decrease in the interest rate, which is 0.1% today. The last step is unlikely, though.
The British currency is likely to remain under pressure until the meeting of the Bank of England. But we should not forget about the unresolved issue on the terms of Brexit, which will also push the GBP/USD pair down. That is why, giving the forecast for November, the majority of analysts (60%) sided with bears, heralding the pair a further decline first to support 1.2860 and then 100 points lower. The final goal is the September 23 low at 1.2675. Exactly the same picture is drawn by graphical analysis on D1. 70% of technical indicators on both timeframes, H4 and D1, are also colored red. 
A diametrically opposite position is now taken by 40% of experts. And here it should be noted that when switching to forecasting until the end of the year, the number of bulls' supporters increases to 70%. Apparently, the market still hopes that at the most critical moment the Brexit deal with the EU will be agreed and signed. The nearest resistance is zone 1.3000. It is followed by levels 1.3080, 1.3175 and 1.3265;

https://i.imgur.com/QKYbvOA.jpg



- USD/JPY. Now this pair is sandwiched between two very strong levels - 104.00 and 105.00, and its further movement depends on the risk sentiment of investors. And those, in turn, depend on what will happen in the United States in the coming week.
65% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will make another attempt to break through 104.00 support. But only 30 per cent are confident that it will be able to reach the 103.00 zone.
The same graphical analysis for the first half of November draws the lateral movement in the corridor 104.00-105.00. In case of breaking through its upper boundary, the pair has a chance to gain a foothold in the next echelon, 105.00-105.80, and possibly reach the height of 106.10. However, the chances of doing so are currently estimated at only 15%;

- cryptocurrencies. It has been repeatedly discussed how the change in ownership of the White House could affect the cryptocurrency market. The election of the President of the United States is pretty soon. And here it is impossible not to mention the fact¬ that on Wednesday, October 28, Donald Trump's campaign website was attacked by hackers - followers of the Monero cryptocurrency. As a result, an advertisement for this altcoin and a statement by attackers that the Trump administration was allegedly involved in the emergence of the coronavirus, and that Trump himself was involved in criminal activity and cooperation with foreigners to manipulate the upcoming elections, appeared in the About Us section of the website.
In addition to the election results, other factors contribute to the uncertainty in the prospects for bitcoin. So, according to analysts at Glassnode, stock markets and other external factors have practically ceased to affect the BTC rate, which is now more focused on the internal environment, and investors are still trying to figure out its new policy. At the same time, Glassnode believes that the asset has every chance to take new barriers in the future.
Having prophesied the imminent decline of cryptocurrency in the past, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor now claims to be ready to hold bitcoin for at least 100 years. The company led by Saylor has invested $425 million in bitcoin over the past months. According to him, having considered the available options for preserving capital amid the economic uncertainty in the world, MicroStrategy has concluded that bitcoin is the best long-term store of value. Saylor is sure that even gold does not compare with this cryptocurrency. In his opinion, people who hold $100 million in fiat will lose 99% of the value of their assets in 100 years, and investments in gold will, at best, bring 85% of the loss.
Specialists from the American investment bank JPMorgan have also preferred bitcoin. In their view, BTC outperforms gold as an alternative currency and has a substantially better chance of continued growth. According to their new report, the capitalization of the crypto market is not large enough yet as digital currencies are chosen mainly by millennials. The older generation prefers more tangible assets, particularly gold. Despite this, however, bitcoin has significant potential for long-term growth as millennials will become "an increasingly important component of the investment space" over time.
JPMorgan estimates that the physical gold market, including ETF backed by it, is $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin needs to raise its current value of around $13,000 10 times to equal the precious metal in this respect.
The previous positive outlook was confirmed by the founders of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini brothers, saying that the BTC/USD pair will reach $500,000 sooner or later. "The question isn't whether bitcoin will cost $500,000 or not, the question is how quickly it will happen. In fact, even this assessment seems to me very conservative - the game has not really even started," said Cameron Winklevoss.
If we turn to the forecast for the near future, the majority of analysts (60%) believes that the BTC/USD pair will continue to attack the resistance of $14,000. But it is only 25% of analysts that say that this assault will end in luck and the pair will be able to gain a foothold in the $15,000 zone by the end of the year. The probability of reaching a height of $16,000 is estimated today at only 10%. But the possibility of quotes returning to $12,000 increases to 40%.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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#4 04-11-2020 15:30:20

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

CryptoNews

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- According to the founder of the investment fund Off The Chain Capital Brian Estes, the attitude towards cryptocurrencies will change dramatically over the next ten years. This is especially true of the American market, which is still showing loyalty to digital assets. Roughly 90 percent of U.S. households will use bitcoin by 2030. Asia will be ahead in this industry, but China and other countries will focus on sovereign coins.

- Well-known analyst Willie Wu believes that bitcoin has entered the "safe haven" stage. He already predicted a similar development of events In early autumn. According to the cryptocurrency expert, the main coin is now showing relative stability, which is why it is not worth waiting for a repeat of the 2017 rally. In addition, even if Bitcoin does go into aggressive growth, it will be in for constant corrections.
“Correlation of the main cryptocurrency by other market industries is gradually decreasing. This ensures the stability of the asset but prevents it from moving to growth. It is because of stability that there is a certain stagnation now,” said Wu. Judging by the trend of recent days, the main coin may be between $13,000 and $14,000 for a long time to come.

- An unknown user withdrew 69,370 BTC (approximately $960 million) from a wallet that hackers have been trying to hack for several years. At the time of the transfer, this address was the world fourth largest holder of bitcoin. And, perhaps, the owner of the wallet simply transferred the coins to a new, more secure address. As noted by the Telegram channel Goldfoundinshit, the forums claimed that the wallet is associated with the founder of the anonymous trading platform Silk Road Ross Ulbricht, who is serving a life sentence in an American prison.

- Known as the "king of bonds," Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, recommended the first cryptocurrency and gold as insurance against the dollar's depreciation. Interestingly, Gundlach was saying until recently that he was not ready to participate in the hype around bitcoin. In an interview with Business Insider, he had called the first cryptocurrency a "lie", doubting it was impossible to hack it. “I don't believe in bitcoin. I think it's well tracked. I don’t think it is anonymous,” he had said then. And now the businessman, who manages $141bn in assets, has offered his listeners to hedge the risks of inflation by adding gold and bitcoin to the investment portfolio.

- Residents of Cuba have become much more interested in bitcoin Over the past month. According to Google Trends, in terms of the number of searches related to the first cryptocurrency, the country came in second place, and is now second only to Nigeria. Bitcoin's rise in popularity in the island nation is due to tougher American sanctions, as well as restrictions on the use of PayPal and Stripe payment platforms.
South Africa, Cameroon and Ghana are also among the top five countries with a high interest in bitcoin. Residents of Taiwan, Kazakhstan and Japan turn to the search engine with such a request less often than others.

- Bitcoin showed a negative correlation with the Dow Jones index last week. While stock markets were declining all over the world, the rate of bitcoin rose by 5% and even exceeded the 2019 high. That's not yet the limit, according to some analysts. A new impetus for the growth of BTC may be given by the US presidential election. “Trump's victory should be well received by participants in the financial markets,” experts say, “and the bitcoin rate will grow along with the rates of other assets. If Biden wins, we will see the stock market fall. However, bitcoin is likely to show growth amid expectations of a depreciation of the dollar. "

- A cryptocurrency user in Canada decided to give kids Halloween gift cards, each with $100 in bitcoin, which is roughly 0.007 BTC. Interestingly, some candy hunters, dressed as ghosts, goblins, and witches, were disappointed to receive an inedible piece of cardboard. But there were also those who were delighted to become the owner of a real cryptocurrency. The information that bitcoins were being distributed in this house quickly spread throughout the area, and whole groups of children began to move there on purpose.
The reaction from the crypto community was positive, with many believing that it was a good way to introduce children to the crypto world. "This is a historic moment," said analyst Billy Wu. "When these children come to power, there will be only 0.002 BTC left for each person."

- According to Rai News, a 41-year-old employee of the airport in the Italian city of Lamezia Terme infected the computers of the airport network with a miner virus. He used their computing power to mine ethereum. In addition, the "crypto-enthusiast" has placed several of his own mining farms in the office premises, having powered them from the airport power grid. CCTV cameras managed to capture this, the records of which ended up in the hands of the city prosecutor's office.

- Several US banks have begun negotiations with major crypto custodians such as Anchorage and Coinbase on potential cooperation. This happened after the regulator officially allowed banks to provide such services. This was stated by the head of the United States Currency Exchange Office (OCC) Brian Brooks. He believes that financial conglomerates around the world will not create their own solutions for storing cryptocurrencies from scratch, but rather will buy market leaders or enter into cooperation with them to meet the needs of their customers.

- Hackers have stolen more than $13.6 billion in cryptocurrency since 2012, committing more than 330 hacks. This is stated in the study of the analytical service Atlas VPN.
Most often, hackers attacked decentralized applications running on the basis of the EOS blockchain platform. There were 117 such cases. Next on the list was the ethereum blockchain platform. The services developed on top of it were attacked 33 times.
As for money, most of all hackers stole it from crypto exchanges and crypto wallets. According to Atlas VPN, there were 87 successful hacks of trading platforms, as a result of which the attackers managed to withdraw $4.8 billion. Wallets suffered even more damage, where the total damage amounted to almost $7.2 billion.


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#5 08-11-2020 11:40:20

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 09 - 13, 2020




First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As we expected in the previous forecast, thanks to Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the growth of U.S. stocks and encouraging reports from the front against COVID-19, the euro and other competitors of the dollar can very quickly recover the positions previously lost.
As for the coronavirus, no positive news has yet been received from this front. Moreover, voting in the elections led to a new anti-record in the United States: 100,000 new infection cases in just one day.
Joe Biden, too, is finally yet to win. But the growing likelihood of a change in the owner of the White House has already led to an overflow of investor funds from fiat to the stock market. Investors loved the idea of a Democratic president and the division of Congress into two camps. In this case, there is less risk of tax increases Most likely, due to the relaxation of regulation, life will become easier for technology companies. As a result of such expectations, the dollar went down, while the S& P500, Dow Jones, as well as the euro and other major currencies, went up. So, the Chinese yuan managed to win back more than half of the losses suffered as a result of trade wars unleashed by Donald Trump. The common European currency also showed impressive growth. Starting on November 02 from 1.1645, the EUR/USD pair reached the level of 1.1890 by the evening of Friday 06 November, showing an increase of 245 points. The last chord was placed at 1.1875;

- GBP/USD. The British currency grew not only due to the fall in the dollar, but also thanks to the decision of the Bank of England, which decided to further support the country's economy on Thursday, November 05 by increasing the bond purchase program by ?150 billion and bringing it to ?895 billion. The market had expected increases to just ?845 billion pounds and this additional QE extension pushed the pound up to the October 21 high of 1.3175. The pair ended the week session at 1.3150, showing an increase of 200 points;

- USD/JPY. Recall the forecast that was given last week. We cite:
"Now this pair is sandwiched between two very strong levels - 104.00 and 105.00, and its further movement depends on the risk sentiment of investors. And those, in turn, depend on what will happen in the United States in the coming week. 65% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will make another attempt to break through the support of 104.00. But only 30 per cent are confident that it will be able to reach the 103.00 zone".
And now judge for yourself how accurate it was. The pair did go to break the support 104.00, broke it, but managed to go down only to the horizon 103.17. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 103.30;

- cryptocurrencies. Let us start with statistics. According to Google Trends, according to the number of searches related to the first cryptocurrency, Nigeria, Cuba, South Africa, Cameroon are in the TOP-5 countries with the highest interest in bitcoin, and Ghana closes the top five. Residents of Taiwan, Kazakhstan and Japan turn to the search engine with such a request less often than others.
And, before moving on to the main event of the crypto week, some more statistics, from the world of crime. It has finally become known how many digital assets have been stolen by cybercriminals. According to a study by the analytical service Atlas VPN, since 2012, hackers have stolen more than $13.6 billion in cryptocurrency, making more than 330 hacks. Most often, thefts were carried out from crypto exchanges and crypto wallets. According to Atlas VPN, there were 87 successful hacks of trading platforms, as a result of which the attackers managed to withdraw $4.8 billion. Wallets suffered even more damage, where the total damage amounted to almost $7.2 billion.
And now the main promised news: Bitcoin soared to a height of $15.880 on the night of November 05-6, adding 17.2% over the week. It should be noted that since the last days of October, the main cryptocurrency again correlates with both stock indices Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 and with gold. Not surprisingly, during the pandemic, the US Federal Reserve printed a huge amount of new money, and many large investors, fearing inflation, included bitcoin in their portfolios as a protective asset. Therefore, a sharp jump in BTC / USD quotes in the second half of the outgoing week was associated with the expectations of Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election, which caused a sharp weakening of the dollar and a capital flow into risky protective assets.
The total capitalization of the crypto market grew in 7 days by 9%, having risen from $410 billion to $447 billion.The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was at around 90 by the evening of Friday, November 06, in the zone that the developers of the index designated like “Extreme Greed”. This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction. Although, it should be noted, a certain correction has already taken place, and the pair rolled back to the $15.150 zone from the highs of the week and completed the seven-day period at $15.510.
Bitcoin's growth has pulled many top altcoins with it. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) has grown 15% heavier over the week. Additional support for this coin was provided by the news about the imminent launch of the ETH 2.0 branch. However, for this to happen, the developers must raise funds in the amount of 524,288 ETH (about $230 million). Investments should be frozen for a period of one and a half to two years; the expected return is 8-15% per annum. If the necessary funds are raised in November, the launch of the ETH 2.0 genesis block will take place on December 1 at 12:00 UTC.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Stock markets are growing, investors continue to pour money there, hoping that the wave raised by the hopes for the arrival of a new US President will grow higher and stronger. At the same time, the market forgets that the situation with the coronavirus is only getting worse, that Trump has not gone anywhere yet, and that no one has yet canceled the fiscal burden, and all this remains only at the level of election promises. Trump, if he loses, may well protest the election results. We should also not forget about the weakness of the common European currency.
In general, the flight of investors from the dollar towards stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin and the euro, while understandable, may be premature. Everything can turn in the opposite direction overnight.
In such a situation, it is quite natural that the opinions of experts are equally divided: one third vote for the growth of the EUR/USD pair, one third - for its fall, and one third take a neutral position. As for technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are still green, but among the oscillators, 25% are already giving signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates a possible downward trend reversal or a serious correction. The trend reversal is also indicated by graphical analysis on D1.
The pair is in a strong mid-term support/resistance zone 1.1880-1.1900 now. The nearest support levels are 1.1760, 1.1700 and 1.1610. Resistance levels are 1.1965 and the September 01, 2020 high of 1.2010. It should be borne in mind here that this maximum is the highest point at which the pair has been located since May 2018. And if EUR/USD continues its northward movement, its main target is likely to be the zone 1.2200-1.2400;

- GBP/USD. There is a movie, “The King's Speech”, dedicated to George VI, father of Britain's current Queen Elizabeth II. The upcoming week can be called "The Head of the Bank of England' Speech." Moreover, he speaks a lot: Andrew Bailey's speeches are scheduled for November 09, 12 and 13. In addition, the data on the UK labor market will become known on Tuesday, November 10, and the GDP of this country for the III quarter and the consumer price index - on Thursday, November 12. According to forecasts, everything is quite contradictory. On the one hand, GDP can grow from -19.8% to +15.8%. But on the other hand, the growth of applications for unemployment benefits is expected from 28.0K to 78.8K. Now it is worth adding to this the ambiguity with the dollar exchange rate, which now depends on the outcome of the presidential election in the United States, as well as the still unresolved terms of the deal with the EU on Brexit.
As a result, we have rather vague prospects for the GBP/USD pair, although most experts (70%) tend to continue its uptrend - first to 1.3265, and then perhaps to the high of 01 Sept, 1.3480. The nearest resistance is 1.3175. 
As for technical analysis, here the situation is completely identical to the readings for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point to the north, while the graphical analysis looks to the south as well as 25% of the oscillators which are signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are 1.3085, 1.3000, 1.2855. The next target of the bears is 1.2755, but it is unlikely to be reached in the coming week;

- USD/JPY. So, as already mentioned, amid the protracted vote count in the US elections, the dollar dropped to a two-month low against the basket of major currencies last week, and most investors expect it to weaken further. Currency markets are betting that Democrat Joe Biden will be the next president, but Republicans will retain control of the Senate. In this situation, 70% of analysts believe that the Japanese currency will continue to strengthen against the dollar, as a result of which the pair will still break through support in the 103.00 zone and approach the level of 102.00. (Taking into account the backlash, slippage up to 101.75 is possible). It should be noted that it has not fallen so low since the beginning of the panic of March 2020, caused by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
In the current situation, one should probably not be surprised that the readings of the indicators for the USD/JPY pair coincide completely with the readings of their "colleagues" for the previous two pairs, with the only difference that the weakening of the dollar corresponds to the movement of this pair down, and not up, as in the case of the euro and the pound.   
The remaining 30% of experts side with the bulls and vote for the return of USD first to the resistance of 104.00, and then fixing in the zone 104.00-105.00;

- cryptocurrencies. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a winning card for bitcoin. The more money Central Banks print to support the economies of their countries, the more investors begin to acquire Bitcoin as a protective asset. And not only private but also large institutional investors.   
Cryptocurrency is no longer a pariah for financial giants such as JPMorgan and PayPal. The "king of bonds", the head of the management company DoubleLine Capital ($141 billion) Jeffrey Gundlach, who had recently called the first cryptocurrency "a lie", now recommends it as insurance against dollar depreciation.
According to Brian Brooks, head of the US Currency Exchange Office (OCC), some US banks are already actively negotiating with major cryptocurrency custodians such as Anchorage and Coinbase on potential cooperation. Brooks believes that financial conglomerates around the world will not create their own solutions for storing cryptocurrencies from scratch, but rather will buy market leaders or enter into cooperation with them to meet the needs of their customers. According to Off The Chain Capital investment fund founder Brian Estes, roughly 90% of households in the U.S. will use BTC coins by 2030.
As for the near future, according to a number of experts, after overcoming the critical $12,000 mark, there are no serious obstacles for bitcoin on the way to $20,000. At the moment, 60% of analysts agree that the BTC/USD pair will set off for a new assault on the $16,000 height in the near future.   
Although, there are other opinions. For example, well-known analyst Willie Wu believes that bitcoin has entered the "safe haven" stage. “Correlation of the main cryptocurrency by other market industries is gradually decreasing. This ensures the stability of the asset, which is why it is not worth waiting for a repeat of the 2017 rally. And even if bitcoin goes to aggressive growth, Willy Wu believes, it will face constant corrections and return to the $14,000-15,000 zone. This point of view is now shared by 40% of analysts, while in the medium term their number increases to 60%. However, it is absolutely clear that the determining factor for the BTC/USD quotes in the foreseeable future will be the success of Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the fight for the presidency of the United States.

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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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#6 11-11-2020 16:54:36

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

CryptoNews

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- Binance cryptocurrency exchange has started blocking the accounts of users from the United States. There are no official explanations for these actions so far. The emails that users received after being blocked say they need to withdraw all the funds from their accounts within 90 days.
According to The Block, previously blocking was carried out only if the user indicated that he or she was a US citizen during the registration process. Now the exchange finds them by IP addresses. For some clients, the administration offers to switch to the Binance US platform or its analogues, since they are not subject to the prohibitions of American law.

- The number of cryptocurrency ATMs has increased by 80% in 2020 compared to their number in 2019. Currently, there are about 11 thousand such devices in the world. An average of 23 new ATMs are installed every day.
According to experts, most often such ATMs are installed by small startups that are trying to make money on the exchange of cryptocurrency for fiat. The devices are installed in large shopping centers mainly in countries where the circulation of digital assets is allowed at the state level. The CoinATMRadar portal has a map of the location of cryptomats around the world. Judging by it, most of the devices are located in the United States and Canada. You can not only get fiat in them, but also buy the cryptocurrencies themselves, at the exchange value. It is not uncommon for the user to choose a platform with an up-to-date rate.

- Many representatives of the cryptosphere are happy with the fact that Joe Biden has most likely won the US presidential election. The crypto community believes that, unlike Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Biden will be more liberal about digital currencies and the blockchain industry in general.
According to Mike Novogratz, CEO of crypto trading bank Galaxy Digital, the new administration will accelerate the launch of the incentive program. In this situation, a further increase in investor interest in bitcoin is inevitable, as the dollar will become less attractive amid inflation.

- Popular blogger PlanB remains true to his forecast that the price of the first cryptocurrency will rise to $100 - $288 thousand by December 2021, which is consistent with the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model on which his expectations are based.
The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, he observes how the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults.
According to the S2F model, this move of bitcoins to wallets for long-term storage leads to a reduction in their sales. This is especially true for the period after the halving, which leads to a supply shock and provokes a bull market for the next 18-20 months. This was the case for the first and second halving of miner awards in 2012 and 2016. According to PlanB, the dynamics of bitcoin after the third halving in May 2020 is developing like clockwork, which once again confirms he is right.

- Former associate of George Soros in the Quantum fund, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, said in an interview with CNBC that he had invested part of the capital under his management in the first cryptocurrency. He admitted that bitcoin may be a better instrument for preserving value than gold.
Druckenmiller has noted the growing stabilization of the first cryptocurrency since its launch 13 years ago. “I'm partly a dinosaur, but I've become better aware that bitcoin can become an asset class that will be interesting from the standpoint of a capital preservation tool,” the investor has explained.
In the same interview, the billionaire predicted a fall in the US dollar over the next three to four years.

- The Taiwanese laptop manufacturer Compal Electronics has fallen victim to the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. For decrypting the files, the hackers demanded 1,100 BTC (almost $17 million at the time of writing), according to Bleeping Computer.
DoppelPaymer is distributed on Windows networks and is known for attacks on corporate networks by gaining access to administrator rights. According to experts from the information security company Group-IB, this virus entered the top three most aggressive and greedy ransomware of 2019.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the bitcoin rate will rise to at least $20 thousand in 2021 and renew its all-time high. This is not McGlone's first positive prediction. In early October, he suggested that the first cryptocurrency would rise in price to $100,000 by 2025 and gave several reasons for this. These include the monetary policy of the states, which leads to the depreciation of fiat currencies.
The expert added that the gold will rise in price next year on the same factors as BTC. Its value could rise to $2k an ounce.

- As the publication Unfolded notes, the dependence of Ethereum on bitcoin has been weakening since the end of October. The correlation of the two largest cryptocurrencies decreases amid preparation for the release of the updated version of the Ethereum network (ETH 2.0). It is this factor that has accelerated the separation of the main altcoin from BTC.
Now the correlation is at its lowest level since early 2018. If Ethereum rises in price to $500 in December against the background of weakening bitcoin (now ETH is holding at $460), then it will be able to finally "untie" from its "big brother".

- The market has marked consolidation at two addresses of bitcoins, which have not been in motion for 10 years. According to the data from blockchain.com, the aggregation of coins worth more than $15 million originated from 20 different addresses. Each of them transferred 50 BTC. Until the first halving in 2012, this was the amount miners received as a reward for a successfully mined block.
The situation with early bitcoins of the time of Satoshi Nakamoto always attracts increased attention of the crypto community. Everyone is primarily interested in whether they are really part of the legacy of Satoshi himself. So, more recently, the crypto community enthusiastically discussed the movement of bitcoins worth over $1 billion on the night of the US presidential election. The most fantastic versions were put forward, but later it turned out that this US Department of Justice confiscated almost 70,000 BTC from the purse associated with the Silk Road darkmarket.


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#7 15-11-2020 07:19:12

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 16 - 20, 2020




First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Last week, we started talking about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. Yes, Joe Biden has won the presidential election. It seems to have won. Since Donald Trump's team has already collected a lot of facts about the violations and falsifications and is going to challenge the election results in court. For the time being, a number of state bodies, including even the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), refused to support the change of president. The distribution of seats in the US Senate remains questionable, and the priorities in the country's policy, including fiscal measures and programs to support the economy, depend on this.
It is completely unclear in which direction and at what speed the situation with the coronavirus pandemic will develop as well. Will there be a new lockdown and of what scale? The daily number of new cases of COVID-19 infection has exceeded 100 thousand in the United States for almost a week and a half already, which requires the adoption of new restrictions at least in some states. And this is a reduction in production, a decrease in the number of jobs and, as a result, a fall in stock indices.
In general, there are still much more questions than answers. And that is precisely why the forecast that we gave last week turned out to be absolutely correct. recall that the opinions of experts were equally divided then: one third voted for the growth of the EUR/USD pair, one third - for its fall, and one third took a neutral position. The nearest levels were named: support - 1.1760, resistance - 1.1965. The EUR/USD pair spent the whole week around these boundaries, fluctuating in the range from 1.1745 to 1.1920, and eventually returned to the Pivot Point zone, along which it has been moving for 16 consecutive weeks. The final chord sounded at 1.1830;

- GBP/USD. Let us start right away with the results of the week - the long-awaited breakthrough did not happen in the Brexit negotiations. And the storms, when the pound, following the forecasts of 70% of experts, first rushed to the north, reaching a height of 1.3315, and then turned southward, falling by 210 points to 1.3105, ended in complete calm in the middle of this range - near the horizon 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. We can state looking at the chart of this pair that those 30% of experts who had sided with the bulls and voted for the return of USD to the 104.00-105.00 zone were right. Following the yield on long-term American securities, the pair even tried twice to break through the resistance at 105.65, but failed, and eventually completed the five-day period at 104.60, climbing 130 points;

- cryptocurrencies. Let's start with the crime news, which did not differ much last week from what had happened before. For example, hackers have reminded of themselves again. This time, Taiwanese laptop maker Compal Electronics fell victim to the ransomware DoppelPaymer. The hackers demanded 1,100 BTC (almost $17 million at the time of writing) for decrypting the files. According to information security experts from Group-IB, DoppelPaymer spreads on Windows networks, is known for attacks on corporate networks by gaining access to administrator rights and was among the three most aggressive and greedy ransomware of 2019.
One more piece of news. The intrigue with the mysterious transfer of bitcoins worth over $1 billion on the night of the US presidential election ended. The most fantastic versions had been put forward, but it turned out later that it was US Department of Justice that had confiscated almost 70,000 BTC from the wallet associated with the Silk Road darkmarket.
Now some statistics. The number of cryptocurrency ATMs has increased by 80% in 2020 compared to their number in 2019. An average of 23 new ATMs are installed every day. Currently, there are about 11 thousand of them in the world, and most of them are located in the United States and Canada. According to experts, most often such ATMs are installed by small startups that are trying to make money on the exchange of cryptocurrency for fiat.
Last week, exchanging bitcoins for dollars became even more profitable, since, as predicted by most experts, the BTC/USD pair crossed the $16,000 mark. The main cryptocurrency rose to a height of $16,460 at its peak, and it happened on Friday 13 - the so-called "day of trouble", which got its name from numerous superstitions and myths and was immortalized in the famous American horror film.   
However, as far as Bitcoin is concerned, this day, on the contrary, has delighted many holders of the reference cryptocurrency. Some began to take profits, hoping then to replenish their BTC wallets on a rollback. And those who were not going to sell their coins just got another dose of optimism in anticipating further growth in their capital.
If you look at the chart of the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market for the last week, you can clearly see that when the BTC/USD quotes fell, active buying of coins began again. This happened both with the price falling to $14,390 on November 07, and the next pullback two days later. As a result, step by step, the pair rose higher and higher, which indicates an overall positive sentiment, and which allowed the total capitalization, as a result, to grow in seven days from $447 billion to $465 billion.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was in the same place as a week ago by the evening of Friday, November 13 - at 90, in a zone that the developers of the index designated as "Extreme Greed". This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction. Recall that in a similar situation on November 07, the pair lost about 8%. True, it then took less than a day to restore the quotes to the previous values.
As for ethereum, as the Unfolded notes, its dependence on bitcoin has been weakening since the end of October. The correlation of the two largest cryptocurrencies decreases amid preparation for the release of the updated version of the ETH 2.0 network. It is this factor that has accelerated the separation of the main altcoin from BTC. Now the correlation is at its lowest level since early 2018. If ethereum rises in price to $500 in December against the background of weakening bitcoin (now ETH is holding at $460), then it will be able to finally "untie" from its "big brother".


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. According to 90% of 65 Wall Street Journal experts, uncertainty in financial markets should decrease with clarity regarding the outcome of the US presidential election and news about the COVID-19 vaccine. Moreover, the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, believes that much has become clearer to her personally, thanks to Joe Biden's victory, the expected success in the Brexit negotiations and vaccine development. As a result, the more clarity, the less desire to buy up dollars, and the greater the cravings for riskier assets. And this should lead to the growth of the EUR/USD pair.
But Ms. Lagarde's view is not yet the view of the whole market. The second wave of the pandemic is only gaining momentum. How the United States will behave under Biden's presidency is also unknown. So, for example, 58% of Wall Street Journal experts expect that the size of the next economic aid package will be $1-2 trillion, 29% vote for an amount less than $1 trillion, and the remaining 13% call the figure of $2-3 trillion The continuation and scope of the trade and economic war between Washington and Beijing and many other factors remain in question.
Unlike fundamental, technical analysis doesn't know what presidential elections, trade wars or vaccinations are. That is why, despite the uncertainty prevailing in the market, the indicator readings now look much more specific. Thus, 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are painted green. They are opposed by only 25% of the oscillators signaling that the pair is overbought.
But as for analysts, although moods similar to Christine Lagarde's expectations prevail, it is still difficult to call them dominant. The bulls have very little priority: 50% of the experts side with them. Bears have 40% of supporters. The remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.
The narrowest trading range for the pair is limited by the channel 1.1740-1.1845, the next one with the increase in volatility is 1.1700-1.1900, and finally, the maximum swing of fluctuations, since August, is 1.1600-1.2000.
Among the most important economic events of the coming week, the publication of macro-statistics on the US consumer market on Tuesday, November 17 should be noted;

- GBP/USD. Bank of England Governor Speaks Marathon continues, albeit with less tension¬ - if last week Andrew Bailey spoke as many as three times, then for the next one only one of his speeches is scheduled, on Tuesday, November 17th. It is possible to predict with a high degree of probability that the purpose of such public activity of the banker is to convince the government and the public that the regulator has its finger on the pulse and that, despite the difficulties, one should look to the future with optimism.
However, the financier's optimism about the prospects of the British currency is shared by only trend indicators on H4 and D1 and oscillators on H4. But on D1, there is already complete turmoil among the oscillators - one third is colored green, one third is red and one third is neutral gray. This color scheme almost coincides with the forecasts of analysts, among whom 30% are in favor of the growth of the pair, 25% are in favor of its fall, and another 45% take a neutral position. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it definitely leans towards the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pound. The supports are 1.3100 and 1.3055, the goal is to return the pair to the echelon 1.2850-1.3000. Resistance levels are 1.3315 and 1.3285.

- USD/JPY. It is well known that the dynamics of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US securities - where they are, there it is. After falling to the horizon 103.15, the reversal of this pair and the rise to the level of 105.65 looks very impressive. But the result of the week turned out to be not so bright at all, because, after the rise, another fall followed, as a result of which the yen managed to win back more than 40% of its losses.
If you look at the D1 chart, the USD/JPY pair is still within the downlink, which began in the last week of March 2020. And whether it can reverse this trend depends largely on what happens to the real, rather than nominal, yield of 10-year US bonds. And it depends on the policy of the Fed, which, in turn, depends on who will soon be in the White House and what kind of strength awaits us in the Senate of this country.
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators on both timeframes, believe that the pair will keep within the descending channel and will try to test support in the 103.00 zone again. Supports are at 104.35 and 104.00 levels.  According to an alternative point of view, the pair is expected to rise first to resistance in the 105.00 zone, and then to a height of 105.65. The next goal is 100 points higher;

https://i.imgur.com/46o6T7p.jpg



- cryptocurrencies. We have already written that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a winning card for bitcoin. The more money Central Banks print, the more investors begin to acquire bitcoin as a protective asset. But this card is not the only one. Many representatives of the crypto sphere were encouraged by the results of the US presidential election, where Joe Biden may have won. The crypto community believes that, unlike Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Biden will be more liberal about digital currencies and the blockchain industry in general. However, the issue of Biden's reigning in the White House has not yet been resolved, as Trump intends to prove numerous irregularities during the vote in the courts. So this “Big Game” has not yet ruled out big surprises.
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the bitcoin rate will rise to at least $20 thousand in 2021 and renew its all-time high. This is not McGlone's first positive prediction. In early October, he suggested that the first cryptocurrency would rise in price to $100,000 by 2025 and gave several reasons for this. These include the monetary policy of the states, which leads to the depreciation of fiat currencies.
Former associate of George Soros in the Quantum fund billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller agrees with McGlone, he also expects the dollar to fall on the horizon of three to four years. He revealed in an interview with CNBC that he invested some of the capital in the first cryptocurrency, while admitting that bitcoin may be a better tool for preserving value than gold.
A sharper growth curve for BTC/USD is predicted by a popular blogger under the nickname PlanB. So, if according to Mike McGlone's forecasts, the first cryptocurrency will reach $100 thousand only by 2025, PlanB expects to see it at this height by December 2021. The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, he observes how the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults. According to the S2F model, this move of bitcoins to wallets for long-term storage leads to a reduction in their sales. This is especially true for the period after the halving, which leads to a supply shock and provokes a bull market for the next 18-20 months. This was the case for the first and second halving of miner awards in 2012 and 2016. According to PlanB, the dynamics of bitcoin after the third halving in May 2020 is developing like clockwork, which once again confirms he is right.
At the moment, the BTC/USD pair has reached the highs of January 2018. But mass profit-taking is holding back greed in anticipation of its growth to at least $20,000. Especially since there are no serious levels of resistance along the way. However, global factors, such as Trump's victory or mass vaccination against COVID-19, as well as Chinese miners who have relaunched their equipment and need cash money to cover capital expenditures and operating expenses, may reverse the trend.
60% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to be fixed above the $17,000 level by the end of November. 20% give a neutral forecast, and the remaining 20% expect the pair to fall to the $14,000-15,000 zone.


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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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#8 18-11-2020 15:12:13

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

CryptoNews

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- Hackers attacked large companies in Israel, traditionally demanding a ransom in bitcoins to regain access to confidential information. The new ransomware virus was named Pay2Key. It affects corporate programs through which reports on financial transactions and other data are transmitted. According to IT company CheckPoint, if the conditions set by the criminals are not met, they usually simply upload the databases to the darknet or to specialized resources on the Web, where anyone can view the materials or buy them.

- Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, in collaboration with investment company CI Global Asset Management, will launch a new bitcoin fund in Canada. The investment company will act as its manager, and the cryptobank will act as co-manager. The latter will carry out all Bitcoin transactions on behalf of the fund. The asset value will be based on the Bloomberg CFIX Bitcoin Index. The partners have already announced preparations for the IPO, as part of the initiative. The offer consists of $10 Class A and F shares.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone is confident that the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency will reach $1 trillion in the second half of next year. However, first the price of bitcoin needs to overcome the main obstacle: the all-time high reached in December 2017 at around $20,089. Almost three years have passed since then, during which time the price managed to drop to $3,126, and then grow fivefold, reaching $18,000 at the moment.
“$20,000 is the main obstacle for bitcoin to capitalize at $1 trillion,” McGlone wrote. - The digital version of gold, but with a more limited supply and a history of adding zeros, appears to be in the early stages of pricing and may simply continue to grow in 2021. Its mass acceptance is growing."

- Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in Bitcoin. At the time of this writing, 650,369 users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative.
Comments from representatives of the cryptocurrency community appeared under the post. For example, the founder of the investment company Grayscale, Barry Silbert, recommended Williams to get acquainted with his firm. In the message, he stressed that "Game of Thrones" featured a "greyscale" in keeping with the name of his company, Greyscale.

- Thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. This forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. He believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.

- The founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptobank Mike Novogratz admitted that he once bought his first 500,000 ETH at the rate of $0.99 from Vitalik Buterin. According to the billionaire, the Ethereum project team decided that it would be nice for the community to have a buyer from Wall Street.
As for bitcoin, Novogratz learned about it in 2012 and purchased the first 30,001 BTC at $95 per coin. When asked why such a strange amount, the billionaire replied that at that moment the head of the hedge fund Pantera Capital Dan Morehead bought 30,000 coins, and "then we decided that we would buy 30,001 because we could not afford to have more."
Novogratz also admitted that he planned to sell bitcoin at $1,000 to buy a plane, but he was talked out of it by partner Pete Briger.

- New US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring the discussion of the first cryptocurrency to the national level. The politician said this in an interview with ABC News channel. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time,” said Lummis.

- The popular American businessman Robert Kiyosaki agrees with the senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
It is curious that in addition to his bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Kiyosaki wrote two more books in collaboration with US President Donald Trump.

- The price of bitcoin broke through the level of $18,000 with a market capitalization of $338 billion. BTC has grown by more than 50% over the past month as its net purchases on crypto exchanges have far exceeded those of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that 145,000 bitcoins left the exchanges in the last month, and only 27,000 BTC were mined during this time.


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#9 22-11-2020 13:02:32

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 23 - 27, 2020




First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Last week, we talked again about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. And then the forecast was appropriate: 50% of the experts sided with the bulls, 40% supported the bears, and the remaining 10% took a neutral position. And it turned out to be the most correct: the pair moved in a very narrow range of 1.1815-1.1890 for the whole week and completed the five-day period in its central part, at the level of 1.1858.
The reason for this is the same uncertainty caused by the unclear balance of power after the US election and, as you might guess, by the situation with the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In addition to the fact that President Donald Trump has already reached the Supreme Court, where he is going to challenge the election results and where the Republicans have strong enough positions, there is now another conflict in the United States, between Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve System.
Mnuchin has said that emergency lending programs have already achieved their goals and that they should be completed this year. The Fed would like to see all of these programs designed to support the economy during the pandemic continue to work in full. 12 of the 13 credit lines through which the Fed is pumping trillions of cheap dollars into the economy are due to close on December 31, and if that happens, the stock market will be under intense pressure. Which will trigger a sell-off in stocks and a rise in the dollar as a haven currency.
According to the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the time to complete emergency lending programs will not come soon. He is supported in this by the International Monetary Fund, which believes that the real state of the economy leaves much to be desired and the cessation of funding will lead to another collapse of world GDP.
It was reported on Thursday, November 19 that Republican Majority Leader in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, seemed to be ready to resume negotiations on a new stimulus package. However, no one can say yet how these negotiations will end.
The situation with measures to counter the spread of COVID-19 also remains unclear. State authorities are trying to prevent a new round of the epidemic. New York has already decided to close schools, and the stock market went down on Thursday on the announcement of Mayor Bill de Blasio about the possible introduction of a ban on eating in public catering establishments. And although in Europe the situation with the pandemic is also quite difficult, it is still better than in the United States: thanks to the restrictive measures adopted in the EU, the virus is spreading more slowly here. But making any predictions is a thankless job in this case as well;

- GBP/USD. At the end of the week, the pound, albeit slightly, but grew up, having risen at the maximum from 1.3200 to 1.3310. And this despite the fact that negotiations on Brexit conditions between the EU and the UK were suspended on Thursday due to the infection of one of the members of the European delegation with the coronavirus. The pound was supported by the information about the resumption of negotiations between the Democrats and the US Republicans on fiscal stimulus, which we described above. Another support was the published data on retail sales in the UK, which increased by 1.2% in October. As a result, the pair closed the trading session closer to two-week highs, at 1.3290;

- USD/JPY. While the economies of the US and the EU are only trying to fight off another coronavirus attack, Japan is showing impressive success. GDP of this country for the third quarter increased to plus 5.0%. And this despite the fact that a quarter earlier it was minus 8.2%. Such indicators allow the yen to maintain its status as a major haven currency, making it more attractive, compared to the US dollar.
As a result, the forecast, which was given by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators, was quite accurate. Recall that they felt that the pair would be kept within the downstream channel and would once again try to test the support in the 103.00 zone. True, the pair did not reach the target horizon and found a local low at 103.65. But its aspiration to the south is beyond doubt: having started the five-day week at 104.60, it finished it at 103.80; 

- cryptocurrencies. The forecast we gave the previous week suggested that the BTC/USD pair should consolidate above the $17,000 level by the end of November. At the same time, it was noted that it is hardly worth waiting for a massive profit-taking in the near future, as it will be restrained by greed in anticipation of the price growth at least to $20,000. Especially since there are no serious levels of resistance along the way. 
The reality has surpassed forecasts: having broken through the $17,000 and $18,000 levels, the pair soared to a height of $18,780, showing a weekly gain of 15%. In total, the first three weeks of November saw, bitcoin grow by 35%, and the total crypto market capitalization increase from $401 billion to $515 billion, and at the time of writing the forecast, on November 20, it continues to grow. Such volumes were only seen during the historic 2017 rally.
Among the main reasons for the growth, experts cite the increasing adoption of bitcoin by both private investors and large institutional investors. Thus, a survey of 700 millionaires conducted by DeVere Group showed that 73% of them either already own this cryptocurrency or are going to invest in it.
Another reason is the monetary policy of the US Fed. Amid the coronavirus pandemic and interest rate cuts, the US money supply has risen by 22% this year. And that is not the limit, as another stimulus package of about $2 trillion is expected under the QE program.
Finally, there is a third serious reason for the growth of the basic cryptocurrency. Recently, net purchases of bitcoin on crypto exchanges have been significantly larger than the sales of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that only 27,000 BTC were mined in the last month, and as many as 145,000 coins left the exchanges. Moreover, most of them migrated to "cold wallets" as an object of accumulation.
It should be noted here that, according to experts, the imbalance between BTC supply and demand will only increase, stimulating the growth of the coin. The reason is that the Chinese government has started a fight against the largest community of miners¬: Beijing has banned ICOs, cryptocurrencies are classified as unwanted speculation, and miners' bank accounts have begun to be blocked. This is despite the fact that more than half of bitcoins are mined in China at the moment.
Returning to the results of the week, we note that Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index froze at 86 by the evening of Friday, November 20, in the zone that the developers of the index designated as "Extreme Greed". This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The US problems were described in the first part of this review. Considering scenarios for next year, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% drop in the USD weighted rate in 2021, Citibank does not rule out that the dollar index could fall by 20%, and Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to grow from the current 1.1800-1.1900 to 1.2500.
Looking to the near future, experts also give preference to the European currency. Thus, 65% of them expect that the pair will break the resistance of 1.1900 in the coming weeks and reach the zone of 1.2000-1.2100. Accordingly, 35% of analysts expect a decline to the level of 1.1700-1.1750. The likelihood of a fall to the November 4 low of 1.1600 is estimated so far at only 10%.
On the bulls side, there is a graphical analysis of 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1. The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Closest supports are at 1.1740 and 1.1685 levels.
As for the most important economic events of the coming week, one should pay attention to the data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, which will be released on Monday 23 November,  to macro statistics from the United States, including GDP for the third quarter and data on orders for durable goods  on Wednesday 25 November, and to the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve and on Thursday, November 26;

- GBP/USD. The October growth in consumer activity in the UK was most likely caused by the fact that the population was buying goods for future use before the coming lockdown. Therefore, it is possible that in November this figure will go into negative territory. Sales through online stores will not save it either. We should not forget the increasing likelihood of parting with the EU without a trade agreement. The leaders of European Union member states have already begun preparations for a hard Brexit, according to The Times newspaper.
Analysts' opinion has so far been divided equally. But when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, and 65% of experts do not bode well for the pound, expecting the GBP/USD pair to fall by 300-400 points.
But the indications of technical analysis still look quite optimistic. 75% of oscillators, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 are colored green. An alternative point of view is represented by 25% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1. Support levels are 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3100, 1.3035 and 1.2855, resistance - 1.3310, 1.3400 and the August 1 high of 1.3480.
As for macroeconomic indicators, we advise you to pay attention to the November Markit PMI, which will be published on November 23 and, according to forecasts, may fall by more than 15%, from 51.4 to 42.5; 

- USD/JPY. Until there is some clarity regarding the further monetary policy of the United States, the preferences of conservative market representatives will remain on the side of the Japanese currency. This is what at least 45% of analysts think, supported by 80% of indicators on both timeframes. 25% of experts have supported the growth of the dollar and the USD/JPY pair, and the remaining 30%, together with graphical analysis on D1, have taken a neutral position. Supports are located at 103.65, 103.15 and 102.00, resistance levels are 104.50, 105.15 and 105.70.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws a rebound upward from the central line of the descending channel in the 103.40 zone on D1, and the pair's return to its upper border in the 105.40-105.65 area;

- cryptocurrencies. Many investors are wondering if it is too late to buy bitcoins now. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, together with other indicators, have been in the overbought zone for a long time, the pair has almost approached the cherished $20,000, and no serious correction has yet occurred.
Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in bitcoin. More than 650 thousand users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative. The result is almost equal, which indicates a possible reversal of the downward trend.
A number of specialists expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to support in the $15,700 zone. But there are also notorious pessimists who recall the catastrophe of 2018, when the price collapsed from an all-time high of $20,000 to $3.125.
However, now the situation is somewhat different than in 2018. Bitcoin has proven not only its survivability during this time, but also its ability to generate colossal profits. Even Jamie Dimon, CEO of banking giant JPMorgan, admitted it. Now his analysts advise investing in this cryptocurrency, which Daimon had called "fraud and stupidity" back in 2017 Another giant is the PayPal payment system, which has only recently introduced a service for investing in cryptocurrencies, due to high demand, it has already doubled the limit, which has now reached $20,000.
A forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. According to him, thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. Fitzpatrick believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.
It seems that legislators in Washington are also turning to cryptocurrencies. While Beijing is putting pressure on its miners, new US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring discussions on the first cryptocurrency to the national level. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time” said Lummis.
Robert Kiyosaki, a popular American entrepreneur and author of the bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad, also agrees with the Senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
As for the forecast for the coming days, the overwhelming majority of experts (80%) have supported the sideways movement of the BTC/USD pair in the $18,000-19,000 range. And only 20% expect it to fall below $18,000. No one has voted for the breakdown of the $19,000 resistance in the coming week. However, if we talk about the forecast before the end of the year, 70% of analysts agree that bitcoin can update historical highs.

https://i.imgur.com/QyfNfXS.jpg




NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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#10 25-11-2020 14:20:42

Stan NordFX
Member
Registered: 08-09-2017
Posts: 148

Re: Weekly Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

CryptoNews

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- Musician Sean Lennon, son of world star John Lennon of The Beatles, has sided with the Bitcoin. “If everyone continued to use gold now, then it would have to be carried in bags. In addition, it is much easier to steal such an asset. Cryptocurrencies are almost completely independent. People need freedom, which the authorities, banks and other departments are trying to take away. Bitcoin allows you to use your funds to the maximum,” says Lennon Jr.

- Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has wished bitcoin luck. According to him, the entire industry will benefit from the growth of the main cryptocurrency, but a decrease in the correlation between assets can lead to new problems. Because of this, the head of Ripple has urged investors to have both bitcoin and altcoins in their portfolio.
He has also noted that the rally in the basic cryptocurrency that began in November could indeed lead to new all-time highs. According to him, ill-wishers are now talking about a new pyramid, which could collapse at any moment. But according to Garlinghouse, bitcoin now has huge support from large investors, making a major correction almost impossible.

- American rapper Logic bragged about $6 million in bitcoin investments to his fans. According to the artist, the funds were transferred to cryptocurrency last month. He first bought bitcoins worth $2 million then, after which he decided to make two more of the same transactions. Many social media users have agreed that Logic has already made good money, since a month ago the cost of bitcoin was significantly lower.

- For the first time, the Lithuanian State Tax Inspectorate has sold the confiscated cryptocurrency worth 6.4 million euros. the assets include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. The funds received from their sale are directed to the state budget. Recall that in the United States, the Federal Marshals Service regularly holds auctions for the sale of cryptocurrency confiscated by law enforcement agencies. Also, soon the confiscated cryptocurrency will be put up for auction in Romania.

- PayPal chief executive Dan Shulman believes bitcoin will ultimately be used more for day-to-day payments rather than a store of value. “The use of cryptocurrency in daily purchases will increase its functionality and stabilize it,” Shulman said, noting that during the coronavirus pandemic, the use of cash has dropped significantly. According to him, up to 70% of consumers no longer want to deal with them.
PayPal opened access to Bitcoin and several altcoins for its customers earlier this month and is now working to integrate trading platforms. This will allow sellers of goods and services to accept digital payments as early as next year. Dan Shulman noted that before launching the service, the company held detailed consultations with world regulators.

- The number of Ethereum addresses on which at least one ETH is stored has reached a historic high of 1.171 million addresses.  Business for the leading altcoin took off in the summer, thanks to the growth of the decentralized finance sector (most of these projects were created on the basis of Ethereum). To date, investors have already invested $13 billion in the DeFi sector.
Still, the current growth cannot be compared with the takeoff of the coin, which began at the end of 2017. Note that as of 01/01/2017, there were only about 66 thousand Ethereum wallets, and just a year later, when the price of ETH reached its historical maximum around $1300, there were already 873 thousand of them (an increase of 1223%).

- On November 24, the price of bitcoin surged above $19,000 for the first time since December 2017. At the time of publication, the market capitalization of this coin has reached $357 billion and exceeded the capitalization of such a giant as investment bank JPMorgan (about $349 billion).
Despite its CEO's skepticism about digital currencies, JPMorgan has already started serving cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Gemini, and bank analysts have confirmed that a number of institutional investors are considering bitcoin as an alternative to gold.

- Jaan Tallinn, co-founder of the telecommunications application Skype, has admitted in an interview with Fortune that he keeps a fairly large part of his personal fortune in cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin has also been supported by the chairman of the messenger company Intercom, Eogan McCabe. "I would like to announce that after years of pampering, I jumped firmly on the bitcoin train and now I want everyone else to do the same."

- Unknown people deceived the employees of the hosting provider GoDaddy and gained access to control over the domains of several cryptocurrency platforms. The attacks began on November 13, according to KrebsonSecurity.
The first victim was the Liquid cryptocurrency exchange. The hosting provider handed over control of the account and domain to an attacker. Liquid chief Mike Kayamori said the hacker managed to partially infiltrate the platform system and gain access to the document repository.
The second victim was the NiceHash cloud mining service: on November 18, experts found an unauthorized change of DNS settings in GoDaddy. NiceHash froze withdrawals for 24 hours until they were sure they were back to their original state.
Supposedly, cryptocurrency companies Bibox, Celsius and Wirex were also victims of the attack.

- Analyst Mati Greenspan believes that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is qualitatively different from the situation that was observed three years ago. In 2017, the rise in the price of BTC to $20 thousand was the result of the entry of speculators into the crypto sphere. Now the market is controlled by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive, the analyst quotes the CNBC channel. Greenspan expects a further update of bitcoin highs as early as this year.

- Wall Street veteran Max Kaiser believes the supply shock will drive bitcoin to rise to $1 million. “The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day.
This is why I think that institutions that buy bitcoins will do it directly from miners, and people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins as the price will skyrocket to $1 million per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change.”


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