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#1 16-11-2020 10:09:13

johnedward
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From: Paris - France
Registered: 21-12-2009
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EUR/USD: the $1.750 pivot level is under heavy surveillance

EUR/USD: the $1.750 pivot level is under heavy surveillance


The euro was breathing slightly above its pivotal graphic threshold against the USD ($1.1745/$1.1750), picking up a few pips in a market that is digesting last week's vaccine news, not to mention the prospect of a divided Congress. While a breathing phase is taking hold of the other major risk asset classes, namely equities and crude oil, the euro is continuing its process of lateralisation against the USD, a process that has been underway since mid-summer.

This vaccination news, of course, does not solve the virus situation with a snap of the fingers. The President of the ECB, Christina Lagarde has warned that even with a vaccine, the economic recovery in the euro zone risks being "unstable", depending on the pace of deployment of treatments. Also speaking at an annual forum of central banks, US FED Chairman Powell stressed that it was far too early to incorporate the boost that a possible vaccine would provide into economic forecasts.

Forex traders will now gauge the credibility of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's threat to veto a European Union agreement that provides for the disbursement of European funds to respect the rule of law. The risk of this blackmail is a blocking of the 745 billion "post-virus" recovery plan. This threat of a veto on the European budget will be an opportunity to highlight the difficulty of moving forward with 27 Member States with such different views.

As of right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.1838.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS
The central threshold of $1.1745/$1.1750, which has prevailed since mid-summer, was regained on 5 November, quite frankly, after the high volatility recorded since the previous Tuesday. The EUR/USD pair has regained a working base between $1.1745 and $1.1900, with no new direction being indicated, though. Forex traders are advised not to intervene in the immediate future as there is no relevant charting and technical entry point to the currency pair. The spot resumes its steady support at the $1.1750 level.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion remains neutral in the medium term on the pair's exchange rate.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the pair is positioned between support at $1.1745 and resistance at $1.1900.

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