EUR/USD: Finally, some stats that matter!

The EUR/USD remains in a waiting position while important macroeconomic publications are expected today (US GDP for the 1st quarter in final data) and this Friday (PCE price, the Fed's preferred inflation index).

Concerning American growth, "there is almost no doubt that the GDP of the United States will continue to expand during the first half of 2024. We also estimate that American activity should grow in 2024 at a rate close to its potential, in other words in a range between 1.8% and 2.0%", for Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis Investment Managers.

As for PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices, they are expected to increase monthly by 0.3%, excluding food and energy. Coincidentally, J Powell, the head of the Fed, is due to participate a few hours later in an interview conducted by Kai Ryssdal, the host of 'Marketplace' during the conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy, in San Francisco. Questions from the public are expected.

"During the last Fed meeting, the surprise once again came from the President of the Fed himself, more accommodating than recent inflation data in the United States could suggest," notes Alex Baradez (IG France ). Will this dove character still be tenable at this point after the publications on growth and inflation in this second part of the week? This is the whole issue for the currency pair, currently lacking direction.

On the agenda this Thursday: the consumer confidence index (U-Mich, revised data) at 15:00 (EU time).

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.0810.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS
Consistent with our previous papers, we build a bullish position, which we maintain as long as the 20-day moving average (in dark blue) gravitates above the 50-day moving average (in orange). The difference between these two curves is small.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

Our entry point is at $1.0794. The price target for our bullish scenario is $1.1143. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at $1.0692.

The expected profitability of this forex strategy is 349 pips and the risk of loss is 102 pips.