Date : 2nd January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd January 2019.



FX News Today

* Markets didn’t have a good start to 2019 as disappointing data out of China rekindled concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.

* China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.7, which together with the fact that both private and official PMIs suggest a correction in orders inflow saw investors heading for cover.

* Japan remained closed but Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -2.68% and -1.38% respectively, while the ASX lost -1.57%.

* Chinese 10-year yields dropped -12.1 bp and stock futures in the US and Europe are also heading south, indicating wide spread losses for stock markets on the first trading day of the year.

* The broad market movement suggests a drop of the Dollar, as a cautious mood prevailed on the first trading day of the year on concerns over global growth, the US government shutdown and a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

* In addition, the worse than expected Dallas Fed index, which plunged to a 30-month low in the last day of the month also had its bearing on the Dollar.

* Oil prices also fell back and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 44.82 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* EU Markit Manufacturing PMI – The European manufacturing index is expected to have remained flat at 51.4 in December. Among the countries, the Italian and Spanish indices are expected to have decreased slightly, while it is expected to have remained similar for the rest of the large countries.

* UK Markit Manufacturing PMI – In the UK, manufacturing is expected to have deteriorated in December and stand at 52.5, compared to 53.1 in November.
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th January 2019.



The Economic week ahead

Increased year-end volatility took a breather to kick off the first trading week of 2019. But after a streak of market pessimism with the major indices flirting with bear market losses, it would appear that upside surprise risks have prevailed for now.

This welcome turn of events was anchored by the “remarkably strong” jobs report that contradicted the financial markets’ worst fears about the deterioration of the economy that had virtually priced out further Fed rate hikes and even flagged risk of a rate cut by year end.

United States: US data on inflation and the ISM-NMI will be the focus in the week of January 7. However, due to the government shutdown, several of this week’s other releases may be delayed, including trade, factory orders, wholesale trade, construction spending, new home sales, and the advance indicators.

The Highlight is inflation, as that will be one of the prime movers of Fed policy going forward. Also key will be the ISM-NMI for the most up-to-date reading on the service sector. The NFIB small business optimism index is on tap (Tuesday), along with November JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), as well as consumer credit, seen rising $16 bln in November, compared to $25.4 bln in October. MBA mortgage market data arrives (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5 (Thursday), after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. The data are likely to be distorted by the government shutdown, along with the typical difficulty in holiday seasonal adjustments. The Treasury budget (Friday) may post a surplus of $5.0 bln in December, relative to a -$204.9 bln deficit in November.

Meanwhile, the rest of the economic calendar will be subject to the government shutdown. November factory orders (originally set for Monday) should post a 0.2% decline, with a flat reading for inventories. The November trade deficit (originally Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -$51.6 bln from -$55.5 bln. Wholesale inventories (originally Thursday) are seen falling 0.2% in November.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Powell will make another appearance this week before the Economic Club of Washington (Thursday), though there will be no text, only a moderated Q&A, no doubt reiterating the “patience and flexibility” formula that helped propel stocks higher Friday. The week rounds out (Thursday) with Richmond’s Barkin, Chicago’s Evans, St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and VC Clarida. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be of interest, as the Fed hiked rates.

Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the highlight this week. No change to the current 1.75% setting is expected for the policy interest rate amid a slowing economy, moderating inflation pressures and the hefty downside risk posed by weak oil prices to real sector growth.

Economic data has the November trade report (Tuesday) expected to reveal a -C$2.0 bln deficit in November from the -C$1.2 bln shortfall in October. Housing Starts (Wednesday) are seen falling to a 205.0k unit pace in December from 216.0k in November. Building Permit Values (Thursday) are projected to slip 0.5% in November after the 0.2% dip in October. The New Housing Price Index (Thursday) is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) after the flat readings in August, September and October. The December Ivey PMI is due Monday.

Europe: The ECB’s account of the last policy meeting (Thursday) is likely to reflect growing unease and there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases. The minutes aside, there is also ECBspeak from Villeroy (Thursday) and Mersch (Friday), who are likely to back the central bank’s official line.

The data calendar is busy and should support expectations for slowing economic momentum as global trade tensions and Brexit risks cloud over the outlook. The German November manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen falling -0.2% m/m, while industrial production (Tuesday) is seen rising a modest 0.3% m/m with a solid stock of orders still underpinning activity for now. Export growth is likely to have eased in November, but lower import prices should have helped to underpin the nominal trade balance which we expect to report a sa surplus of EUR 18.0 bln.

So far the labour market continues to improve as companies have a solid stock of orders to fill and an unchanged November unemployment rate is expected (Wednesday) of 8.1%. Improving labour markets and Black Friday sales, meanwhile are expected to have underpinned German and Eurozone retail sales (both Monday), which are seen up 0.4% m/m and 0.2% m/m respectively.

UK: The UK’s data calendar is relatively quiet, highlighted by November production data and monthly GDP data (Friday). The industrial output should recoup 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. The BRC retail sales report for December will also be released (Thursday), which should affirm a robust holiday sales tally.

Japan: December Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is seen dipping further to 42.5 from 42.9. The November Current Account surplus (Friday) should narrow to JPY 700 bln from 1,309 bln. December bank loan figures are also due Friday.

The China inflation data headline may show some further easing due to the drop in oil prices. December CPI (Thursday) is penciled in at a 2.0% y/y pace from 2.2% in November and 2.5% in September and October. December PPI (Thursday) is forecast at a 1.7% y/y rate from 2.7%. December loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Thursday, with the latter seen up CNY 800.0 bln from the prior CNY 1,250.0 bln increase.

Australia: The trade report (Tuesday) is seen revealing a widening in the surplus to A$2.5 bln in November from A$2.3 bln in October. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in November after the 1.5% decline in October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to rise 0.2% in November after the 0.3% gain in October.

New Zealand: The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019, in which no change to the current 1.75% setting for the OCR anticipated.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2019.



FX News Today

* USDJPY retested 109.00 but has so far left yesterday’s one-week peak at 109.08 untroubled. Yen crosses have remained buoyant amid a backdrop of firm global equity markets.

* EURJPY and AUDJPY, meanwhile, have posted fresh one-week and 11-day highs, respectively.

* Topix and Nikkei are both up 1.1%, the Hang Seng rallied 2.4%, the CSI 300 1.68% and the ASX 0.98%.

* Hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade standoff continue to run high. Both sides agreed to extend talks into an unscheduled third day amid reports of progress on  the issues of Chinese imports of US goods and increased access to Chinese markets, and Bloomberg cited sources reporting that President Trump, who tweeted that “talks are going very well,” is now eager to strike a deal.

* The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) Index has gained over 1.5%, reaching a 26-day high. The S&P 500 closed on Wall Street yesterday with a 0.97% gain, and S&P 500 futures are showing a 0.4% advance in overnight trading.

* After the soothing words from Powell last week markets will get the Fed minutes to digest today, but for now the mood in stocks is perky, with short coverings on the riskier assets underpinning the move higher and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses, which underperformed yesterday, outperformed today.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Swiss CPI – Swiss inflation is expected to come out slightly lower than last month on a y/y basis, standing at 0.8% in December, compared to 0.9% in November.

* EU Unemployment Rate – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to have been 8.1% in November, the same as in October.

* BoC Interest Rate Decision – No change is expected in the BoC meeting despite the US rate hike in December, given the not-so-great data releases in December and early January.

* FOMC Minutes – Fed minutes are expected to shed more light on the policymakers’ mindset, especially regarding their thoughts on the US macroeconomic outlook.

Support and Resistance



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2019.



FX News Today

* Fed officials continue to pledge patience after Fed Chair Powell noted the balance sheet will be “substantially smaller”.

* ECB minutes confirmed decision to end QE was unanimous.
On the growth risks, there seems to have been a debate on the impact of weaker confidence indicators, with some mixed views.

* The Central banks are increasingly wary of downside risks and their cautious messages support both stock and bond markets.

* US equities stumbled after trade talks ended with few details for all the prior rejoicing, while a handful of year-end stumbles in the retail sector were noteworthy.

* European stock futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight.

* US futures are also clawing back overnight losses with cautious comments from Fed and ECB officials supporting both bond and stock markets.

* WTI crude is holding gains and trading at USD 52.56 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production – Expectations –Industrial output is expected to have recouped 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. Manufacturing production should rise to 0.3% m/m, after the fall to 0.9% last month due mainly to weakness from transport equipment.

* US CPI and Core – Expectations – It is widely anticipated that we will see an energy-depressed -0.1% reading for headline CPI in December, but a warmer 0.2% gain for core prices.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2019.



FX News Today

* Brexit: A crushing defeat of May’s Brexit deal yesterday, brings new uncertainty about the political future in Europe. The odds for delay and/or new referendum are higher.

* GBP bounced: Cable has advanced to the 1.2889 level, up from just under 1.2700 ahead of the vote.

* China injected $51.6 bln via reverse repo operations – The biggest daily net cash injection from China’s central bank on record.

* Japanese markets underperformed and Nikkei was down -0.55%.

* Yen weaker amid risk-back-on sentiment

* Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at $52.26 per barrel.

* German Dec HICP inflation confirmed at 1.7% y/y, leaving 2018 HICP at 1.9%

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* BoE’s Governor Carney speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.


* UK Retail Price Index and Inflation – Expectations –The headline CPI is expected to come in unchanged at 1.8% y/y and December Retail Price Index, which we expect to rise by 0.5% after falling in November.


* UK PPI and Core – Expectations –December headline PPI is forecast dipping 2.1% y/y, while the core is expected unchanged at 0.2%.

* PM May’s Leadership Challenge – Conservative Party lawmakers will hold voting to express confidence in the PM May Government.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.