EUR/USD: Nomura now aiming for 1.09 at the end of this quarter

Nomura shares its forecasts for the EUR/USD, noting that the downtrend of the pair is likely to be slower.

"Recent comments by the ECB, especially those of Coeuré stating that QE should soon be increased to counter seasonality suggest that the ECB seeks to calm markets, and calm bond market volatility (and perhaps even euro gains). This makes it much more likely that we will be below 1.15 on the EUR/USD, and the downward trend (in line with better US data) is about to resume."

"However, the trend might be slower."

"In this context, a reasonable 2nd trimester target for the EUR/USD is around 1.08-1.10, in our opinion. We make a marginal revision to our previous T2 target of 1.08, now at 1.09 for the end of the quarter. For now, 1.05 is still very possible for Q3 2015 and we are sticking to that target for now. A break of parity on EUR/USD would require a very strong US perspective, and the potential for a series of Fed rate hikes, and this kind of certainty can only emerge in 2016, not 2015 it seems."