AUD/USD: Nomura thinks the Australian dollar will appreciate in short-term

The RBA signaled a period of stability to come in terms of monetary policy and has not really been incisive regarding the AUD's price level on the forex. All this is likely to support the AUD in the short-term says Nomura.

1- As the RBA suggests it will not move for a while, we could observe a sort of "repricing" of the rate curve.

2- Positioning remains bearish on the AUD despite a reduction in bullish USD positions.

3. A period of stability on interest rates could trigger capital inflows on assets denominated in AUD.

"With all that in mind, AUD could find short-term support, and it could be that it takes time for the AUD to converge with a level that is more in line with with fundamentals. However, in the medium-term, we believe that the AUD should depreciate. But this would require bad statistics in Australia, or, good US statistics."