NFP and USD: Morgan Stanley says US job figures will have to be really bad to affect rate and dollar forecasts

In a note published this morning, Morgan Stanley has a distinctly bullish opinion of the USD:

"Even if job creation is found to be close to the consensus or under it, we believe that the USD will remain bought (MS forecast: 165k, consensus: 180k). The Fed's rhetoric indeed suggests that the Central Bank wants to get rid of the first rate hike.

The numbers would therefore have to be really disappointing to negatively impact the US rate expectations and therefore the dollar.

Conversely, if the NFP report demonstrates a strong labour market, including higher wages, the market could not only continue to anticipate a rate hike for December but also begin to anticipate a faster pace than expected for the following increases."