EUR: Nomura reveals its forecast for Thursday's ECB meeting

The October ECB meeting will be held this Thursday, and Nomura's analysts do not expect any significant change in the ECB's remarks or monetary policy. Below are their forecasts for this event:

"Of course, the ECB may make some minor changes in its language compared to the last two meetings of 2018.

"With regard to interest rates, we continue to believe that the ECB will slowly increase rates starting in September 2019, starting with a 15-basis point increase in the deposit rate and an additional 10 basis points in December".

"At the press conference, we plan to interview President Draghi (and Vice President Guindos) on the following topics:

1) Italian-Spanish tax policy and contagion to other markets,
2) confidence in the rise in core inflation in light of recent disappointments,
3) whether the central bank has discussed its QE reinvestment policy,
4) external risks for the euro zone (emerging countries, China, protectionism, global interest rates, US fiscal policy and the impact of a disorderly Brexit)."

"In summary, in the absence of new macroeconomic forecasts to announce (the next round of revisions is expected at the December meeting) we are not expecting too much news from this month's ECB meeting."

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