EUR/USD: the euro seems to want to once again test the 1.15 resistance level in the short term (Commerzbank)

Commerzbank believes that upside risks on the EUR/USD are developing on the forex, and it expects a new test of the 1.1500 area in the short term.

"Declines of the EUR/USD should encounter support at the November low at 1.1300/1.1267, and we favour a possible new test of 1.15. The euro is facing strong resistance in the 1.15 zone, but bullish risks are increasing in the longer term, and a close above this level (preferably a weekly close) would trigger a recovery towards the October high of 1.1623 and the 200-day moving average of 1.1640.

Conversely, a break below 1.1267 would trigger a fall to the recent low of 1.1216, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 rise to 1.1186. Please note that we continue to view the recent low at 1.1216 as a mid-market trough."

Note that since the test of 1.13 last week, the EUR/USD is heading strongly upward and could soon hit 1.15. A break in immediate resistance at 1.144 would reinforce this view.