EUR/USD: the euro seems to be resuming its consolidation on the forex (UOB)

UOB's analysis of the EUR/USD pair:

Overall analysis

While the EUR/USD moved sideways (as expected) and closed with little change on Friday (1.1364, +0.04%), the traded range within 1.1350/1.1408 was above our expectations. Although further consolidation seems likely, the weak underlying tone suggests a trading range below 1.1340/1.1400.

Short term analysis

The EUR/USD surpassed 1.1400 on Friday (high at 1.1408) but quickly eased to close the day at 1.1374 (+0.04%). We previously estimated that "the probabilities of a breakout through 1.1440 were slightly more equal" but we pointed out on Friday (1 March) that "unless the EUR closes above 1.1400 from here until the end of today's New York session, we would change our perspective on the EUR/USD as it would be entering a consolidation phase." In other words, the recent slight upward pressure has subsided and we expect the euro to trade sideways, probably between 1.1310 and 1.1425.