EUR/USD: a test of recent lows is becoming increasingly probable (UOB)

UOB's analysis of the EUR/USD pair (Friday, 29 March 2019):

Intraday analysis

We were expecting the EUR/USD "to fall to the next support at 1.1220" yesterday. The EUR then plunged to a low of 1.1212. As the downward pressure begins to fade, it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. The EUR is more likely to consolidate and move laterally at these lower levels, probably between 1.1200 and 1.1255.

Short term analysis

We said yesterday that "if the EUR/USD closed below 1.1220 in New York, it would indicate that it is ready to revisit the 7 March low of 1.174". The EUR then dipped to 1.1212 before ending the day at 1.1220. The prospect of the euro returning to 1.1174 has clearly increased, but we still prefer to wait for a NY close below 1.1220. On the upside, only a move above 1.1300 would indicate that the new nascent bearish pressures have eased.