EUR/USD: a short-term dip is in place, the euro should resume an upward bias (UOB)

UOB analysis of the EUR/USD pair:

Intraday analysis

Apart from a series of movements just after the release of the US Employment Report, the EUR/USD moved calmly over the rest of Friday's session (within a relatively narrow 36-pip range). Friday's low price action combined with the unchanged daily close in New York (1.1217, -0.05%) suggests that the EUR could continue to move sideways for the time being, probably between 1.1200 and 1.1240.

Short-term analysis

Despite a relatively rapid rise last Wednesday (3 April) and a peak at 1.1255, the EUR/USD could not progress much upward (note that it recorded two consecutive internal days on Thursday and Friday). For the time being, we continue to believe that the euro recorded a short-term low of 1.1181 last Tuesday (2 April). However, as noted above, it is premature to expect sustained growth. The current move is perceived as a corrective recovery and the euro should evolve with a bullish bias towards 1.1300 (the next resistance at 1.1330 should not come into play). On the downside, the low of 1.1174 achieved last month should remain uncontested, at least for about a week.