EUR/USD: attention is turning once again to recent lows (Commerzbank)

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, the EUR/USD pair failed to have a significant impact on the 55 and 100-day moving averages at 1.1295/1.1334, and declined once again.

"Attention has once again turned to the most recent low of 1.1176. The number of Elliott intraday waves is negative and the DMI displays a sell signal. Our long positions have been stopped with profits and we will attempt sell positions.

Below 1.1185/75 (61.8% retracement) are 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814.

We suspect that the market is trying to form a base and move up, but that it needs to do more work to do this (we note that the count of the 13 on the weekly chart reinforces the prospects of a potential base). The initial resistance is the limit of the 100-day moving average at 1.1344 and the resistance line at 1.1379, ahead of the 200-day moving average at 1.1433."