EUR/USD: euro still under pressure, mainly due to Italian risk (Commerzbank)

The EUR/USD pair is showing an increasingly bearish trend, and this is what Commerzbank analysts are now saying:

"The EUR/USD must overcome the 55-day moving average, last week's high of 1.1264 and the 2018-2019 downtrend of 1.1302 to reduce downward pressure and reaffirm upward interest.

This is a major challenge right now and it will probably take several attempts. Be aware that as long as the recent lows at 1.1110/06 continue, the trend could be a sharp upward reversal.

Support at 1.1110/06 is considered the next key support area."

It should be noted that among the factors weighing on the euro this week, perhaps the most important is the concern about Italy, a subject that Danske Bank has also been focusing on today:

"Yesterday, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Salvini said he would devote all his energy to changing the EU's "old and obsolete rules". As a result, construction and public works remained under pressure, although the fact that the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Mr. Moscovici, stated that he was not in favour of sanctions against Italy contributed somewhat to improving sentiment. The European Commission and Italy will hold a discussion on this.

In other words, an arm wrestling match is to be expected between Italy and the EU, and that's what is weighing on the EUR/USD this week.

EUR/USD hourly chart: