EUR: the markets could suffer from political risk in France during the coming months (BNP Paribas)

In a note published on Friday, BNP Paribas analysts point out that May 2019 was marked by two key political dates in France: Emmanuel Macron's second year in office and the European elections with results that turned out to be a relative disappointment for the French president.

"According to recent polls, Emmanuel Macron's party-led list ranked second with 22.4% of the votes cast, but that is one percentage point less than the far-right National Coalition, which won 23.3% of the votes. The two lists will each have 23 seats in the European Parliament once the United Kingdom has left the EU.

To everyone's surprise, Europe's Green Party list came in third place with 13.5% of the votes. And, at 50.1%, the turnout was also relatively high for this type of election.

The European elections sent a strong political message, but unlike the United States and what can be seen elsewhere in Europe, they will not have such a direct impact on the French political scene and on the rest of the President's term of office.

And the political agenda is extremely busy until the end of the year: a series of key reforms will be presented, including unemployment insurance, pension, local taxation reforms, a new phase of job and public service decentralisation and widespread mobilisation, at both the national and local levels, in the employment sector, as well as in "green" and digital transitions. All of this will be integrated into the Agenda 2025 plan so that everyone has a clear vision of what is in the cards."