EUR/USD: neither the ECB nor Fed have given the pair a clear direction (Commerzbank)

In the end, neither last week's ECB meeting nor this week's Fed meeting succeeded in giving a clear direction to the EUR/USD pair, which is now increasingly hesitant.

As we can see from the chart below this page, the EUR/USD is part of a broad consolidation triangle, with increasingly reduced volatility as the triangle becomes more refined and approaches its end.

To confirm an exit from the top of this triangle and buying opportunities, it would be necessary to be able to observe a break above 1.11-1.1110. In this case, 1.12 will be the first logical objective for going long.

Conversely, for sellers to be considered dominant, a break below 1.0990-1.10 seems necessary. In this case, the annual low of 2019 around 1.0925 and the psychological support level of 1.09 will be the first objectives to be monitored.

In the end, it is difficult to bet on a precise direction against the euro at the moment, but...

Commerzbank favours a bullish test

Axl Rudolph, an analyst at Commerzbank, says that the pair could still test the 1.1083/1.1110 band as long as it remains above 1.0990.

"The EUR/USD still targets the April and May lows and the three-month resistance line at 1.1083/1.1110, after rebounding from 1.0990, the 17 September low.

Only a daily close above the 25 August high of 1.1164 would confirm a bullish formation and put the 200-day moving average back on track at 1.1253.

Support below the recent lows at 1.0927/26 is at the June 2016 low and at the March high at 1.0912/07."

EUR/USD hourly chart