EUR/USD: 2 banks have a negative view of the pair in the short term, are they right?

The pair fell sharply against yesterday's disappointing PMI indices in Europe, and remains broadly bearish today, as we highlighted in a previous analysis.

In order to properly approach the EUR/USD pair over the next few days, it also seems like a good idea to take a look at some banks' short-term forex forecasts.
Commerzbank has a bearish opinion

According to Commerzbank, "the pair remains capped by the April and May lows and the three-month resistance line at 1.1078/1.1110. Only a daily close above the 27 August high of 1.1164 would confirm the cancellation of the bear bias and allow the 200-day moving average to be targeted at 1.1249."

"For the time being, the market is on the defensive. Support under the recent lows at 1.0927/26 is at the June 2016 low and the March 2017 high at 1.0912/07."

"A break below 1.0927/26 would put the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 rally to 1.0814 in sight."

MUFG Bank economists expect the dollar to remain firm this week, particularly due to the Fed

"We expect the dollar to remain strong this week and modest gains to be made in the U.S. interest rate market, which is vulnerable to further monetary policy actions. We still believe that the Fed will make a further rate reduction, but it is certain that last week's message leaves this call open.

Vice-President Clarida's comments were interesting. He seemed quite optimistic and seemed to be someone who was in no hurry to lower rates again. He described the American economy as "the star student", adding that the American consumer has never been in better shape. The divisions within the FOMC highlight the risk of longer than expected inaction and, therefore, upward pressure on short-term returns."