EUR/USD: the euro awaits Trump's speech, will pair test 1,10 today?

The bias remains undeniably bearish on the EUR/USD pair today, after further lows yesterday at 1.1015.

The psychological threshold of 1.10 will be an obvious potential support if the decline continues today.

In the news, it should be noted that Trump's speech to the Economic Club of New York will be today's key event, and the evolution of the EUR/USD may remain uncertain before this event.

If the US President's speech turns out to be favourable to the dollar, a test of 1.10 will be very possible.

In the event of a rebound, the first potential resistance level will be the 100-hour moving average towards 1.1050, ahead of the psychological threshold of 1.11, close to where the 200-hour moving average also is.

EUR/USD hourly chart

Below are forecasts of a few big banks regarding the EUR/USD pair:

Commerzbank

"The EUR/USD spent last week under pressure and the market eroded the 55-day moving average to 1.1042 and the 50% retracement to 1.1030. It remains on the defensive and the market has failed for 5 weeks at the 1.1180 level, however the intraday Elliott wave counts remain positive and we will try small long positions again".

"It is not clear if the market will recover towards the 200-day moving average at 1.1185 and the top of the channel at 1.1268, or if we still see a last step to the bottom of the channel at 1.0864 and the Fibonacci retracement at 1.0814 before seeing a sustained recovery."

UOB

"We stressed last Friday that the euro "should drift down to 1.1024" and added that "strong support at 1.1000 is probably out of reach". The EUR then dropped to 1.1014. Although over-sold, this decline does not yet show any signs of stabilisation. That being said, the sluggishness of the dynamics suggests that it is unlikely that a weakness below the 1,1000 level will persist. Resistance is at 1.1040 followed by 1.1065″.

"In the longer term, the euro closed down for the fifth day in a row at the end of last week, after falling to 1.1014. After the relatively low daily Friday close, the risk of a sustained decline below 1.1000 has slightly increased. However, there is more strong support at 1.0970 and only a clear breach of this level would suggest that the euro is ready to address 1.0930. Overall, the euro should remain under pressure unless it can rise above 1.1090″.