EUR/USD: the pair holding steady at key 1.10 threshold, what are the next risks and targets to keep in mind?

The EUR/USD pair remains bearish this morning, with very little rebound from its low of 1.1003 Monday afternoon.

The fact that the pair stopped its correction before testing the major psychological threshold of 1.10 yesterday, however, is an encouraging consolation for buyers.

As for the reasons for yesterday's weakness, it seems that the IFO German Business Climate Index published yesterday morning weighed on trade as it stabilised close to its recent lows, although this was in line with forecasts.

But the fall of the pair was also largely due to the rise of the greenback, which rose against most forex currencies yesterday.

What are the potential catalysts for today?

Today, traders will focus on two US statistics expected at 4pm in the economic calendar: October's new home sales and consumer confidence according to the November Conference Board.

New home sales are expected to increase by 1.1% after the -0.7% decline recorded the previous month, while the consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 127 points after 125.9 the previous month according to the Consensus forecast.

As a backdrop, possible new developments in trade negotiations between China and the US will also be monitored, as good news could boost risk appetite, and therefore the euro, at the expense of the greenback, considered a safe haven.

Technical analysis of the pair

From a graphical point of view, the possibilities of rebound will remain open as long as the 1.10 threshold is maintained. Under 1.10, the next support level is at the mid-November low of 1.0988, ahead of 1.0925, 1.09, and the 1-year low at 1.0880.

On the upside, Monday's peak around 1.1030 will be the first potential resistance, ahead of 1.1045-50, where the 100 and 200-hour moving averages currently meet.

Above this, the 100-day moving average at 1.1080 will be the next resistance level, ahead of the psychological threshold of 1.11.

Currently, the euro-dollar is trading around 1.1013 on the forex.

EUR/USD hourly chart