EUR/USD: is a rebound likely after Friday's decline?

Penalised by a much better than expected NFP US employment report, which led to a dollar rally, the pair fell sharply on Friday, but has regained some ground since the market's reopening last night.

For the record, the NFP report had reported 267k jobs created in the US last month, compared to only 187k anticipated. These figures, which were well above expectations, were all the more surprising as several other US labour market indicators last month pointed to a slowdown in employment.

In this context, the EUR/USD pair had gone from a daily peak at 1.1107 to a low at 1.1038, but had closed above the support level at 1.1051. Today, the pair has so far managed to peak at 1.1073.

From a technical point of view, it should be noted that last Friday's drop caused the EUR/USD to fall below its 100-hour moving average. The 200-hour moving average was tested, but the euro finally managed to close above this indicator, currently at 1.1051.

This could be encouraging, but looking back at hourly data, we realise that Friday's drop gave rise to a break below the 100-day moving average, currently at 1.1063, which is a much more important signal.

If the pair fails to stay above this threshold, sellers could take the lead, and a break below 1.1051 would imply a potential downward acceleration to 1.10.

Upwards, the 1.11-1.1114 range will be the first target if the pair progresses further, ahead of the 200-day moving average at 1.1154.

Lastly, it should be noted that today's economic calendar will not contain any statistics that could potentially influence the pair. On the other hand, the rest of the week could be lively, due to the Fed and ECB meetings, and especially with the China-USA trade war, when new customs tariffs are due to come into force this weekend.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1072 on the Forex market.

Hourly EUR/USD chart