EUR/USD: the pair weakens slightly but retains a bullish profile ahead of a busy economic calendar this week

The eurodollar continues to retain a bullish profile today, but the currency has been losing ground since the reopening of the market, so caution is advised today.

As a reminder, the EUR/USD rallied by nearly 525 pips last week, taking advantage of the USD's weakness, after several weeks of bullish trading, and after the release of historically poor US labour figures last week.

This week, U.S. unemployment figures will remain the focus of traders' attention, with the ADP Private Sector Job Creation report on Wednesday, the weekly Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and the NFP March U.S. Job Creation report at the end of this week.

The consensus is that these reports are expected to be horrid, confirming the magnitude of the impact of the virus situation on the US economy, and could weaken the USD, leading the market to believe that the Fed will further spin the bill to support the economy.

However, caution is required, as there is no reason to be optimistic for the EU, with statistics that are just as disastrous as in the US, and with a virus that continues to spread, especially in France and Spain where hospital systems are flooded beyond capacity.

From a technical point of view, it should be noted that the eurodollar has been in an ascending channel visible for about a week in hourly data.

A continuation of the correction that would cause the eurodollar  to break below the lower bound of the channel, and below the 100-day moving average at 1.1039 would highlight future bearish targets on the key psychological threshold of 1.10 and last week's low of 1.0949.

On the upside, a confirmed return above 1.11 could allow traders to target the psychological threshold of 1.12.

Currently, the eurodollar is trading at 1.1085 on the forex.

Hourly EUR/USD chart