EUR/USD: pressure remains to the downside, what technical levels do we need to watch out for today?

The pressure remains bearish on the pair today, despite some positive fundamental points.

Some good news has indeed been noted, notably regarding the virus situation, with a slowdown in the growth of deaths in both France and Spain.

With regard to the economic calendar, it should be noted that orders to German industry in February, published this morning, fell by -1.3%, compared with the -2.5% that was expected.

For the rest of the day, the calendar will be relatively empty in both the U.S. and EU.

Indeed, several important statistics will be awaited: the minutes of the Fed's last meeting on Wednesday evening, the weekly US Unemployment Claims and US Investor Confidence on Thursday, and last month's U.S. inflation figures on Friday.

We will also be watching the evolution of oil, which is rising this morning in the face of hopes of a potential agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, after this hope was dashed earlier this weekend.

Good news for oil, namely that production cuts are in sight, and this will boost market optimism, which will benefit the euro more than the USD.

On a technical note, it should be noted that UOB bank posted a rather positive short-term view in its eurodollar analysis released this morning:

"We stressed last Friday that the euro "should weaken to 1.0784", but added that "the next support level at 1.0749 is probably out of reach". The euro then dropped to 1.0770 before recovering. Downward pressure has eased with the rebound and the risk of a breakout at 1.0749 remains low. From there, the euro could climb back towards 1.0859. For today, a movement above 1.09 is unlikely. On the downside, 1.0774 acts as a strong support ahead of 1.0749."

Looking ahead to the next few weeks, UOB says that "the ease with which the euro broke strong support at 1.0839 was a surprise. The rapid decline and subsequent weak daily close on Wall Street suggests that the euro may weaken further in the days ahead. At this point, it is premature to expect the euro to return to last month's lows of 1.0634 (there is relatively strong support at 1.07). In the meantime, the euro is likely to remain under pressure unless it can break above 1.0979 (a [i]strong resistance level)[/i]".

Currently, the eurodollar is trading at 1.0804 on the forex.

Hourly EUR/USD chart