EUR/USD: no change in the pair's trend (UOB)

There has been no change in the pair's trend since the forex reopened this week, with the EUR/USD remaining contained within the narrow 1.0919-1.0949 range that has prevailed since last week, following a bullish surge as the USD weakened in the face of further massive cash injections from the Fed and a new historical record of US jobless claims.

However, this week will be even denser in terms of the economic calendar events that are likely to influence trading in the eurodollar.

What should we watch for in this week's economic calendar?

Today will be pretty much empty, but the schedule will be considerably livelier starting tomorrow.

Indeed, we will be waiting for last month's U.S. Retail Sales at 14:30. Economists are anticipating a 0.6% drop due to the closure of many shops in the face of the virus situation.

Simultaneously, traders will also be interested in the NY Fed's March index. The consensus forecast is for a drop to -36 points after -20.9 points previously. Last month's Industrial Production is also on the agenda, and is expected to be -3.9% after +0.7% in the previous month.

On Thursday, weekly unemployment registrations are still expected to reveal several million new job seekers. The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to drop to -29 after -13 previously forecast.

UOB bank's analysis

From a graphical point of view, we note UOB reports a rather negative opinion in its analysis:

"After rising rapidly last week, the EUR traded quietly and within a narrow range (between 1.0920 and 1.0949) at the end of the week. Consolidation resulted in a rapid loss of momentum, and the risk of a sustained rise in the euro is now low. The euro is more likely to drift down, but any weakness is considered to be in the 1.0879/1.0949 range (a net break of 1.0879 is not likely right now)".

Looking ahead a few weeks, UOB believes that "the EUR has entered a consolidation phase and is expected to trade between 1.0749 and 1.0990 for some time," adding that "after the rapid but short-lived fluctuations of recent weeks, the overall outlook is mixed at the moment."

Currently, the eurodollar pair is trading at 1.0925 on the forex.

Hourly EUR/USD chart