EUR/USD: the pair is moving back up, watch out for a busy calendar this week

The eurodollar rose sharply at the end of last week, after continuing its decline to a low of 1.0730, and accentuated its gains on Monday morning, marking a high at 1.0860.

A weaker USD, and some optimism in Europe linked to the prospect of an easing of the lock-in measures are supporting the EUR/USD.

It should also be noted that the market was relieved to learn last week that S&P decided to maintain Italy's debt rating at BBB, which removes a significant downside risk to the euro currency.

A particularly busy economic calendar awaits the pair this week

This week, the economic calendarwill be particularly crucial for the eurodollar with many events likely to significantly impact trading.

On Tuesday, investors will be looking at the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index.

The index is expected to fall sharply for this month, to 90 points from 119 last month.

On Wednesday, it is first of all the preliminary 1st quarter GDP in the US that will be monitored. Economists are forecasting an average drop in GDP of -3.9% quarter-on-quarter, after +1.9% in the previous quarter.

In the evening, attention will shift to the Fed's FOMC meeting. While further rate cuts seem to be out of the question, it is not impossible that the Fed will still manage to surprise.

On Thursday morning, the evolution of the number of job seekers in Germany should be shocking, with 74,500 more unemployed, compared to only 900 more in March, for an unemployment rate that should rise from 4.9% to 5.3%.

In the afternoon, the ECB meeting will also be monitored. And if, like the Fed, the ECB seems to have little room for maneuver to further ease its monetary policy, this meeting will still remain one of this week's main risk events.

Lastly, Friday will be marked mainly by the publication of this month's US ISM manufacturing index, which is expected to drop sharply to 37.0 points after 48.9 points the month before.

The week will therefore be particularly lively, and the expected indicators could have a considerable influence on the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD technical analysis

From a technical point of view, it should be noted that the eurodollars's rally since the end of last week is not yet sufficient to challenge the bearish bottom bias.

Indeed, only a break above 1.09 would attest to the buyers' takeover.

If the pair starts to fall again, the 1.0800-20 area will be the first support level to consider.

Currently, the eurodollar is trading at 1.0841 on the forex.

Hourly EUR/USD chart