EUR/USD: plenty of volatility, but no clear direction

Yesterday, the pair continued its commitment to a phase of broader consolidation, with increasing volatility as nervousness in equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic was confirmed.

The differences between weekly highs and lows over the last two weeks, in both European and US equities, are far apart, with investors remaining on the lookout for the slightest piece of news confirming or denying the scenarios of a second epidemic wave. Yesterday, the Fed further fueled this whirlwind of opposing emotions in the markets with activism, with the announcement of updates to the secondary market corporate credit facility, which will begin to purchase a large and diversified portfolio of corporate bonds to support market liquidity and the supply of credit for employers.

In Monday's statistical chapter, traders took note of the European trade balance surplus for April, which melted down to €1.1 billion, completely missing expectations (€20.3 billion). Across the Atlantic, the Empire State Index, a barometer that measures consumer confidence (NY Fed), made a historic leap from -47.9 to -0.1, while remaining symbolically in red territory.

Currently, the eurodollar is trading at $1.1306.

MID-TERM FORECAST

In view of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the (EURUSD).

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the pair remains between support at $1.1111 USD and resistance at $1.1439.