EUR/USD: the pair is caught between 2 opposing forces

The nervous mood in the forex continues, especially on the EUR/USD, which is an excellent - and reliable - barometer of risk appetite in the financial markets. Markets are more than ever caught between, on the one hand, leading macroeconomic indicators that point to a faster and more vigorous recovery than initially anticipated and, on the other hand, very worrying statistics on the virus front, which naturally pose a threat to these scenarios.

On the statistical agenda this Thursday: wholesalers' stocks at 16:00 and natural gas stocks at 16:30 will be the priority on the other side of the Atlantic. Relief on the China consumer price front, which was published overnight at +2.4% annualised, in line with expectations. No key European figures are on the agenda today. However, the German trade surplus for the month of May was €7.5 billion, exceeding the target of €1 billion.

The WHO (World Health Organisation) is clearly warning that the pandemic is accelerating in certain regions of the world (Brazil, United States, India, Australia) and the peak has not yet been reached. In France, the Director General of Health, Mr. Salomon, calls for "preparing for a resumption of the virus situation", in an interview with the Figaro newspaper. Mr. Delfraissy, who has chaired the Scientific Council since March, brings his insights and expertise to France's president, warns of the abandonment in France of "barrier gestures", and of the consequent risks of a resumption of the virus even before the end of the summer.

"More and more regions in the world are reconfining or at least closing their economies, due to an increase in the number of cases but also in the number of hospitalisations, like Melbourne, Texas or Miami, to name just three," says Vince Bay, an analyst at IG France.

Right now, the pair is trading at $1.1343.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion remains neutral in the medium term on the pair's exchange rate.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the EUR/USD is positioned between support at $1.1109 and resistance at $1.1439.