EUR/USD: rebounds remain limited

For several sessions, it has been rather calm for the pair. The EUR/USD does not find sufficient catalysts to justify a new movement, be it bearish or bullish. In the meantime, it is the bearish trend on the US dollar that is gradually tending to take the euro-dollar to its annual highs.

Liquidity injections remain strong and this is what the ECB reminded us of on Wednesday. The liquidity crisis has been spared in the short term and the risk is no longer on this side, but remains in a potential solvency crisis. This does not mean that it will take place, but that this famous "K" shaped recovery with sectors that will once again suffer the vaccine deployed, will inevitably lead to bankruptcies.

But globally, the market is holding on to its positions, and there is also hope that a fiscal stimulus plan in the United States will occur in the next few weeks at the most. Joe Biden hopes to pass a plan of $3 trillion, with the help in particular of Janet Yellen. Wall Street is closed today for Thanksgiving, suggesting that volatility should be very low, even in the currency market.

The FED minutes released last night gave no further indication of what's next, and the market continues to remain calm. No macroeconomic data is expected until next week.

KEY CHARTS
Technically it is always close to the annual highs that the euro-dollar is evolving, continuing to pick up ground but without real vigour. Yesterday, we indicated that only small bull positions in the very short term could be realised as the potential seems limited for the moment with a target of 1.1950. This objective was almost reached at 1.1940 this morning, which is why we will now adopt a totally neutral bias with two markers to watch out for from now on: 1.1950 and 1.1840, the exit from which should be more instructive for the future.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the eurodollar's exchange rate.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as its prices are positioned between support at $1.1838 and resistance at $1.1966.