EUR/USD: risky assets are capped, affected by sanitary news

Things remain bearish on the spot after the sharp break of its 100-day moving average against the dollar in the middle of last week, after a tightening of tone by the Fed, suggesting an increase in the potential for the dollar to earn.

However, prices stabilised last week, rich in macroeconomic publications, which did not show overheating of the U.S. economy. In particular, after the publication on Thursday and Friday of the final GDP data for the first quarter, confirmed at +6.3%, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation data in decline in monthly rate at +0.6%, the yields of government bonds on both sides of the Atlantic did not get carried away.

Forex traders are closely monitoring the spread of the new "Delta" variant in Asia and Oceania. "Regarding the pandemic, although many countries seem to be on the road to recovery, the spread of the Delta variant, discovered in India, is a growing concern in Asia-Pacific," notes Vincent Bay, market analyst for IG France. The intensification of new border protection measures, notably in Australia, is creating a force that is for the time being opposing the rise of so-called risk assets, of which the Euro is one. Oil and European equities, although at very firm levels, are coming up against it.

In terms of statistics, import prices in Germany, published Monday morning, for the month of May, significantly exceeded expectations, at +1.6% in monthly rate. Today, the S&P CS index of real estate prices in the US (prices in twenty representative cities) at 15:00 pm (European time) and the Conference Board consumer confidence index at 16:00 pm will be the priority. Also to be followed is the speech by Mrs. C. Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the European Economic Forum in Brussels. The week will end with the NFP report on US employment, which the Fed will not fail to integrate into its strategic thinking. Tomorrow, we will have a "preview" with the survey of the private human resources firm ADP (Automatic Data Processing).

The 10-year Treasuries were worth about 1.485 at midday this mardin, down sharply below 1.50.

Right now, the pair is trading at $1.1886.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS

The $1.2000 level has been ruthlessly broken, as has the 100-day moving average (in orange), which is currently undergoing a downward slope inflection. Friday's black marubozu* is the perfect chart and technical translation of the market psychology. Things remains negative below the 20-day moving average (in dark blue).

*This type of candle, characterised by a long body, without any shadow, or almost without shadow, shows a continuous mobilisation of the camp (seller in this case) on the time unit in question.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Based on the key chart factors we have mentioned, our medium-term view is negative on the pair.