EUR/USD: the pair is highly stable

The dollar is definitely marking time. The parity seems to be a real deterrent for sellers. The idea that there is a big difference between the policies of the central banks is fading as the US recession threatens to force a pause in the rate hike. Given this state of affairs and as long as it lasts, we believe that we should avoid staying in the seller's camp at all costs because for essentially psychological reasons parity has not been broken and perhaps will not be. In the immediate future, the rebound initiated on 11 July seems to be coming to an end, but for all that, sellers are not very convinced.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS
Between a lower than expected "remuneration" potential and the risk of a recession, particularly in view of the weight of German industry, the euro has seen its rebound, which began when it reached perfect parity, dry up. The entry into a rebalancing phase, not without volatility, was the chosen option. Our neutral opinion remains valid, therefore avoiding taking positions in the immediate future and still waiting for a real will of the sellers. The latter are torn because the weakness of the US economy does not favour them. On the other hand, the euro zone is likely to pay a heavy price with the war in Ukraine, as gas supplies will become increasingly problematic, especially as Russia holds the keys to real blackmail, Machiavellian manual in hand.

FORECAST
Given the key chart factors we have mentioned, we have a neutral view on the EUR/USD and will maintain this neutral view as long as the pair is positioned between support at $1.0000and resistance at $1.0274.