EUR/USD: the euro is holding strong against the dollar

The euro attempted a foray above $1.09 this morning, supported by a hawkish statement from a member of the European Central Bank (ECB). Klaas Knot, governor of the Netherlands Bank and a member of the ECB's governing council, told the Dutch press that we should expect 50 basis point (0.50 percentage point) hikes in the eurozone central bank's key rates at its meetings in February and March. Then "expect that we will not be done by then and that other measures will follow in May and June," he added, according to Reuters.

Right now, the pair is trading at $1.0868.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS
In the absence of validation of a bottom-up pattern, a continuation of neutral, thin range oscillations near the 20-day moving average (in dark blue) is expected. The very structure of the current consolidation is evidence of the euro's advantage at the start of this year.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
Given the key chart factors we have mentioned, our medium-term view on the EUR/USD is neutral.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the EUR/USD is positioned between support at $1.0645 and resistance at $1.1190.