EUR/USD: Few catalysts ahead of Powell's speech

KEY CHART ELEMENTS

While the euro-dollar rate has remained relatively neutral in recent sessions, other currencies have been driving the market. Yesterday, for example, the Israeli shekel fell to its lowest level in over eight years against the dollar, as Israel prepares for a ground offensive on Gaza. As for the euro, it remains in its short- to medium-term range against the dollar at between 1.04 and 1.08. Forex traders are awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech later this week. Indeed, since last week's better-than-expected US inflation data, the European currency has remained on its lows, awaiting a new catalyst. However, the recent speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker helped to reassure the markets. He reiterated his view that the US central bank had probably completed its monetary tightening cycle. Today's only macroeconomic catalyst will be the US retail sales figures published at 2.30pm CET.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST

In view of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our medium-term view on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is neutral.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between support at 1.0435 USD and resistance at 1.0550 USD.