EUR/USD: what's new with the pair today?

The EUR/USD continues to form a horizontal consolidation, at levels which had not been relevant since mid-August, with currency traders expressing their confidence in the scenario of the beginning of a monetary inflection, through loosening. gradually faucet from mid-2024.

?If the macro data currently supports this, it is nevertheless not certain that the direction of the markets, particularly rates, is not to the taste of the central bankers,? says Tom Giudici, head of bond management at Auris Gestion. So watch out for the hawkish posture [restrictive, hawkish, editor's note] during their last monetary policy meeting of the year, mid-December, where they could try to temper investors' enthusiasm.

Forex traders will have to deal with a very busy macroeconomic program this week, not necessarily in quantity but in "quality": the week's agenda includes indicators with strong potential impact in the event of a deviation from the consensus. And it starts today at 16:00 (Paris time), the consumer confidence index (Conference Board). An indicator with a strong impact, in an economy where traditionally, the creation of national wealth is very dependent on the quality of domestic consumption.

It will continue tomorrow with US GDP data, preliminary consumer price data in November in the Eurozone on Thursday, as will PCE prices, the Fed's preferred measure in its assessment of price dynamics. Enough to gauge even more precisely the credibility of a Goldilocks type scenario, an ideal scenario where measured and controlled inflation would coexist with weak but continuous growth.

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.0953.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
At this stage, an essential observation is necessary. Following the formation of the school marubozu on Tuesday 14th, the spot built an extremely short consolidation, pennant on the upper part of the candle mentioned, before rising early, proof of the bubbling impatience of the buyer camp.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as EUR/USD prices are positioned between support at $1.0822 and resistance at $1.1069.