EUR/USD: ECB meeting and many economic reports today

KEY CHART ELEMENTS
Traders are getting a lot of information today. First of all, they get the ECB's decision (European Central Bank). A status quo is expected regarding short-term monetary policy. However, they will be very attentive to the weak signals sent by the ECB regarding future rate cuts. The market estimates that at least in June Christine Lagarde will initiate her first rate cut. After the ECB, traders will follow the numerous US statistics. Yesterday, the PMIs indicated a US economy in great shape. Today, new indicators such as orders for durable goods, weekly unemployment registrations, building permits but above all the US Gross Domestic Product should make it possible to see more clearly as to the good health of the American economy. Investors have already reduced their expectations of rate cuts. Indeed, the market estimated until very recently that the Fed would lower its rates starting in March. However, statistics suggest that this rate cut should occur later. Traders are now targeting the month of May for a first downward intervention for the key rates of the American central bank. On a technical level, the European currency is still under resistance at the top of a medium-term range. Bearish initiatives are therefore to be favoured in order to aim for the lower bound towards $1.07.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

Our entry point is at $1.0896. The price target for our bearish scenario is at $1.0700. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at $1.1158.

The expected profitability of this forex strategy is 196 pips and the risk of loss is 262 pips.