EUR/USD: A clearly crossed moving average

The publication of NVidia yesterday, after the stock market on Wall Street, excited the financial world, to the point of relegating the Fed Minutes to the background. This report basically only confirmed what we already knew, namely that the powerful monetary institution headed by J Powell is determined - and it has the luxury of being able to wait - to delay before carrying out a first drop in Fed Funds.

Immediately, currency traders have just become aware of the very first estimates of PMI activity indicators for the eurozone in February. If industry disappoints (46.1), services surprise positively, regaining 50 points, the threshold which by construction separates an expansion from a contraction of the sector considered.

"There is a glimmer of hope as the eurozone heads towards recovery. This is particularly visible in the services sector," comments Norman Liebke, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "The corresponding HCOB PMI index is now at 50 points and has therefore stopped falling for the first time since July last year. The latest PMI figure gives hope for a recovery in the Eurozone, [...]. It There is also some optimism in the latest employment figures, which increased at a faster pace than in the previous month."

Nevertheless, says Liebke, "Germany constitutes a brake on the growth of the euro zone. While France is recovering both in the services and in the manufacturing sectors, Germany is lagging behind. The export sector services particularly stimulated France in February, while slowing down Germany. A possible explanation for this could be the increase in tourist activity, from which France benefits much more than Germany."

No surprises to report on the final CPI (consumer price index) data in the Euro Zone, with no deviation from the first estimates. On an annual basis, prices, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, increased by 3.2%.

Todays stat: unemployment benefits in the US at 14:30 (EU time).

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.0847.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS
The 20-day moving average (in dark blue), which until now conveniently served us as a trailing stop, has been clearly exceeded. We therefore no longer offer short positions, and remain on the lookout for a new attractive entry point.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as EUR/USD prices are positioned between support at $1.0810 and resistance at $1.0940.