EUR/USD: NVidia's quarterly report affects the forex

Momentarily, NVidia's excellent quarter will have infused even the exchange rates, where the Euro, the reference barometer of risk appetite, will have accelerated against the USD, after crossing its 20-day moving average. In the immediate future, forces tend to balance around a pivot zone close to $1.80.

In terms of statistics on Thursday, currency traders took note of the very first estimates of PMI activity indicators for the Eurozone in February. If industry disappoints (46), services surprise positively, regaining 50 points, the threshold which by construction separates an expansion from a contraction of the sector considered.

"There is a glimmer of hope as the eurozone heads towards recovery. This is particularly visible in the services sector," says Norm Liebke, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "The corresponding HCOB PMI index is now at 50 points and has therefore stopped falling for the first time since July last year. The latest PMI figure gives hope for a recovery in the eurozone, [...]. It There is also some optimism in the latest employment figures, which increased at a faster pace than in the previous month."

Nevertheless, tempers Mr. Liebke, "Germany constitutes a brake on the growth of the eurozone. While France is recovering more strongly both in the services and in the manufacturing sectors, Germany is lagging behind. The sector of Service exports particularly stimulated France in February, while slowing down Germany. A possible explanation for this could be the increase in tourist activity, from which France benefits a bit more than Germany."

In the process, Nomura analysts reaffirmed that "the ECB will start reducing rates in June".

No surprises to report on the CPI (consumer price index) data in the eurozone, with no deviation from initial estimates. On an annual basis, prices, excluding food, energy, booze and tobacco, went up by 3.3%.

In the US, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits fell, close to the threshold of 195,000 new units, materializing and confirming the tensions on the private employment market.

No surprises regarding the publication this morning of the IFO business climate index in Germany, perfectly in line with market expectations at 85.6 points. The tool for measuring the economic cycle continues to be positioned in "crisis" in their matrix.

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.0834.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS

The 20-day moving average (in dark blue), which until now conveniently served us as a trailing stop, has been clearly exceeded. We therefore no longer offer short positions, and remain on the lookout for a new attractive entry point.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as EUR/USD prices are positioned between support at $1.0810 and resistance at $1.0940.