EUR/USD: the dollar continues to weaken

The dollar has fallen to its lowest level in eight months. Indeed, investors are preparing to listen to economic comments this week at the Jackson Hole symposium where they are waiting for confirmation from Federal Reserve central banker Jerome Powell on the rate cuts widely anticipated so far. The latest economic data align perfectly with inflation falling, consumption holding steady and unemployment rising slightly. The conditions are right to ease monetary policy and all without the need for emergency intervention. A very favorable scenario for investors who like risk but a scenario on the other hand that weakens the dollar. In addition, geopolitical tensions are easing, thus encouraging risk-taking by investors, the dollar being favored in a context of usual tension. Indeed, the United States has declared that Israel has accepted a proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza. The consequences are direct: the euro appreciates, benefiting gold, which reached new records.

Technical section: Technically, the European currency is oriented upwards in the short term and faces significant weekly resistance. Without a signal, it seems dangerous to try to oppose the current flow, so we will scrutinize a bullish breakout to accompany the trend or a pullback in contact with the moving averages to reposition ourselves within the trend.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the EUR/USD is positioned between the support at $1.1069 and the resistance at $1.1134.