EUR/USD: lots of new macroeconomic data

The European currency continues its ascent as macroeconomic news has been multiplying in recent hours and this pace is expected to accelerate further in number and importance. First, traders were able to see the Fed minutes last night. These indicate that several Fed members acknowledged that there was a case for lowering interest rates. This information reinforces the market's view of future rate cuts this year.

The markets are pricing in an easing of about 100 basis points for the rest of the year. In addition, the Labour Bureau released an update to its figures. This publication, released late, indicates that employers added fewer jobs than estimated. The estimate indicated an average of 243,000 per month. Today, the monthly pace is more likely to be around 175,000. This is the largest downward revision since 2009. This information has helped strengthen the euro against the dollar. The potential upcoming easing of geopolitical tensions also invites risk-taking and therefore contributes to this weakening of the dollar. Indeed, the American president continues to put pressure on Israeli PM Netanyahu on the "urgency" of reaching a ceasefire agreement to end the war in Gaza and obtain the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Today, many publications are expected. At 13:30 (EU time), we expect the minutes of the European Central Bank. Then, in the US, we expect at 14:30 the weekly unemployment registrations, the PMI activity indices as well, as well as sales of existing homes. Finally, tomorrow is the Jackson Hole symposium. As a reminder, the Symposium is an annual meeting of central bankers, economists, policy makers, and other experts from the financial sector.

Technically, the European currency is still trending upwards, with no signs of weakness. We will wait for a return to the daily moving averages to position ourselves for buying in the short-term uptrend.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the short term on the EUR/USD.

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the EUR/USD is positioned between the support at $1.1134 and the resistance at $1.1250.