EUR/USD: Bearish pressure remains

The European currency continues to be under downward pressure and should continue its consolidation towards parity over the next few days and weeks. Indeed, since last Thursday and Jerome Powell's speech, downward pressure is back as the Fed presents itself at the end of the year with a more hawkish tone than expected by operators. The American Central Bank is now anticipating only two rate cuts next year while the market was seeing twice as many on its side. In addition, macroeconomic information from the eurozone tends to deteriorate, thus reinforcing the gap between the two economic zones. According to a Bloomberg survey, the eurozone economy will experience less growth next year than expected and will only experience slightly stronger growth than in 2024. France and Germany continue to suffer, the only good news is the outperformance of Spain, which should see its growth do even better next year. In this context, traders should still favor the dollar in the coming weeks to the detriment of the euro. Technically, as long as the candle of Thursday, 19 December is not taken up by buyers, sellers keep the upper hand. Seasonality does not invite spikes in volatility.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the EUR/USD.

Our entry point is at $1.0416. The price target of our bearish scenario is at $1.0238. To preserve the capital invested, we advise you to position a protective stop at $1.0634.

The expected profitability of this strategy is 178 pips and the risk of loss is 218 pips.