EUR/USD: the euro awaits a new catalyst

The EUR/USD is stabilising after a strong rally in recent weeks. Traders are still awaiting new catalysts, in a context where news related to the trade war is becoming scarcer. Despite recent statements by US Treasury Secretary Bessent - who stated that no negotiations regarding tariffs were underway - this info was confirmed by China, contradicting statements made by US President Trump. The outlook for trade between the 2 powers nevertheless remains worrying: container bookings between China and the United States fell by 40% in April.

On the macroeconomic front, traders continue to shy away from the dollar, penalised by the persistent deterioration in US indicators. For example, consumer confidence has declined again: the final index for April stood at 52.1, compared to 56.9 in March.

From a technical perspective, the euro is currently stuck below the 1.15 threshold, evolving into a horizontal consolidation phase. This lateralization is expected to continue pending the emergence of new catalysts, as well as the convergence of the moving averages, which have been far apart until now.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In light of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our medium-term view on the EUR/USD exchange rate is neutral.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the EUR/USD exchange rate is positioned between the support at $1.1250 and the resistance at $1.1460.